More: Analysis
US Pays 5.3%, China Lends at 1.7%: Who Wins as the Treasury Sell-Off Turns the Yuan Into the World’s Cheap Money?
Today’s Numbers
5.3% (US 10-year Treasury yield) · 1.70% (China 10-year government bond yield) · ¥358bn (offshore “dim sum” bond issuance, H1 2026). A gap...
Emptying the Embassies: Russia’s Campaign Against Kyiv as a Functioning Capital
Two Bridges and a Warning
At about 11:30 on 1 October, a Russian jet drone struck Kyiv's Southern Bridge while a metro train was crossing...
Ban Keun and the Quiet Expansion of China’s Overseas Military Bases
A Runway Next Door to Wing 23
In August, Chinese J-10C and J-11 fighters and an airborne early-warning aircraft spent eleven days flying out of...
Suspected Iran Plot Targeting Fairford Airbase: What Happened?
The United States has taken its fleet of bombers away from a British airbase following the arrest of five men suspected of planning terrorist...
Rising US Bond Yields Put Washington Under Pressure: What Comes Next?
The US government is facing increased borrowing costs, with long-term Treasury yields nearing their highest levels in twenty years. This situation is fueled by...
After the Strategic Reserves Run Dry
Two-Thirds Gone, Winter Ahead
On 30 September the US Department of Energy put the last 40 million barrels of its share of March’s emergency release...
Built to Be Announced, Not to Last: The Election Logic Behind a US–Iran Deal
Two Deadlines, One Date
Last Thursday, in Denton, Texas, Donald Trump said Iran is “ready to fold up” and that the war would be won...
The Diesel Weapon
Twenty-Four Hours in October
On 1 October Washington told Europe to release 120 million barrels of diesel from its emergency stocks over six months, or...
Both Shores of the Bab el-Mandeb Are Now at War
A Charge Sheet Aimed at the Sea
On 29 September, Ethiopia's army chief, Field Marshal Birhanu Jula, told the country that its soldiers were fighting...
China Isn’t Building a New World Order. It’s Building a Majority in the Old One
Stalling Clubs, Growing Caucus
In mid-September Xi Jinping made his first visit to India in seven years for the BRICS summit in New Delhi. The...