MD Geopolitical Event Calendar

July 2026

DateEventMD Is Watching For
Jul 13, 2026Foreign Affairs Council, BrusselsEU ministers are expected to formally adopt a new Russia sanctions package targeting the Shahed/Geran drone-component supply chain, a direct response to the 2 July mass strike on Kyiv. We are watching for whether the package clears without carve-outs, and whether it moves at all given how thin allied unity looked at Ankara five days earlier.
Jul 13–19, 2026Taiwan begins pre-Han Kuang joint defense exerciseA week-long precursor exercise ahead of the main Han Kuang drills in August. We are watching for the scale of reservist mobilization and whether Beijing times a parallel PLA exercise to overlap with it, as it has with past Taiwanese drills.
Jul 22–23, 2026COP29/COP31 Presidencies High-Level RetreatA closed-door retreat for negotiation-group chairs ahead of COP31. We are watching for whether Turkiye (as COP President) and Australia (leading negotiations, after their hosting dispute) present a unified finance roadmap, or whether the split-mandate compromise already shows strain.
Jul 28, 202667th JMMC Meeting (OPEC+ monitoring committee)The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee has no independent authority to change output, but its tone typically foreshadows the following week’s decision. We are watching for any language on Hormuz-related compliance risk ahead of the 2 August meeting.