The Reality Check Behind Trump’s Venezuela Oil Deal

President Donald Trump described a major oil deal involving 17 Venezuelan oilfields with about 64 billion barrels of reserves, awarded to North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP), led by Alejandro Betancourt.

President Donald Trump described a major oil deal involving 17 Venezuelan oilfields with about 64 billion barrels of reserves, awarded to North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP), led by Alejandro Betancourt. The deal allows the U.S. to own a 35% stake in NABEP and purchase 20% of its output at production costs. NABEP claims it will increase oil production from roughly 224,000 barrels per day (bpd) to over 1 million bpd.

However, experts and industry workers report significant challenges for NABEP. Many indicated that the company is in debt to contractors and struggling with hiring and infrastructure repairs. Experts suggest that only about 10 billion barrels can actually be developed in the next 25 years, contrary to the larger figures touted by Trump.

NABEP faces numerous hurdles, including the need for capital, competing for equipment, and addressing repairs to old infrastructure. Former Venezuelan energy minister Humberto Calderon Berti expressed skepticism about the deal’s longevity due to NABEP’s inexperience and lack of technical qualifications. Since entering the sector in 2024, NABEP has started several projects but has faced operational complexities, often relying on local contractors for staffing and equipment.

Reports indicate NABEP owes money to some business partners, though the exact debt amount is unknown. Despite facing these issues, NABEP claims to have invested $1 billion of its capital since 2024 and plans to increase annual investments by up to 50% to achieve its production goals. While the Venezuelan oil ministry defended the agreement, it pointed out that about 80% of 4,000 inactive wells in the working area need repair, casting doubt on rapid production increases.

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Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado has criticized the lack of transparency in the NABEP contract, emphasizing the importance of how investments are made. The White House stated production is growing and the deal benefits American interests. NABEP claims to have around 5,000 direct employees and more than 10,000 contractors and is actively hiring staff to support its growth plans.

Oil production is anticipated to increase in Junin Sur of the Orinoco Belt, where NABEP is focusing its expansion. However, improvements in the older and heavily polluted Maracaibo basin may take more time. At Petrozamora, workers reported issues including idle machinery, damaged facilities, oil leaks, and delayed payments to suppliers from NABEP. Despite these problems, NABEP is said to be implementing an improvement plan and has introduced new equipment in Lake Maracaibo. Recent reports indicate that Petrozamora’s output has risen to 115,000 barrels per day from 98,000 in September, but there are no long-term production targets set.

Satellite analysis revealed no drilling infrastructure at several fields, indicating that Junin Sur had only one rig operational. NABEP claims to have arranged for 60 rigs and other heavy machinery to increase production, and some drilling activities have been observed in both Junin Sur and Lake Maracaibo. The company also mentioned having multiple workover rigs and plans for further additions. However, some of their new areas are remote, complicating production efforts.

NABEP will require significant financial backing and reliable partners to develop 17 large oilfields simultaneously, a task experts believe would be challenging even for major oil companies. Additionally, NABEP faces challenges related to bank account access and investigations into its leadership’s past. Despite claiming access to foreign banks, the company’s relationship with Washington could pose further complications, especially following a recent oil shipment to the US.

With information from Reuters

MD Signal Editorial
MD Signal Editorial
MD Signal Editorial leads strategic analysis at moderndiplomacy.eu. Composed of subject matter experts, the team reviews all reporting for accuracy, strategic coherence, and forward looking relevance. We don't chase headlines — we decode them.