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The Last US Troops Have Left Iraq, and It Is Now Iran’s Launchpad
A Departure, and a Drone Launcher
On 30 September the last American troops left an air base in the Erbil region, ending the US military...
Latvia’s Election: Rail Baltica Is a NATO Problem, Not a Budget Scandal
Eurofighters Over Lielvārde
This week, four German Eurofighters and several dozen ground crew arrived at Lielvārde air base in central Latvia. They were sent at...
Xi’s Purge of the PLA Makes a Taiwan War Less Likely in 2027, but a Crisis Harder to Manage
Two Men at the Top, Two Ships in the Spratlys
Today China marks National Day with the smallest military high command in its modern history....
Europe’s Southern Flank Is the New Eastern Flank, and It Isn’t Defended Like One
An Italian SAMP/T in Estonia
Italy has sent one of its SAMP/T air-defence batteries, Europe’s most capable home-built system, to Estonia as part of NATO’s...
Russia’s Next Escalation Is Designed to Be Blamed on Ukraine
A Scenario With a Script
Most intelligence assessments warn about capabilities. The one Denmark’s Defence Intelligence Service published last week describes a script. It warns...
Xi Turned Taiwan Arms Sales Into a Subscription Service
The Money That Runs Out Today
At midnight tonight, $300 million that Congress appropriated as military financing for Taiwan expires unused. The State Department was...
Qatar, Pakistan and Egypt Are the New Mediators, and None of Them Is Neutral
Seven Days, Again
On 23 September, in a meeting room at the United Nations, Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, sat down with Steve Witkoff and...
Europe’s Winter Arithmetic: Why 2026 Is Not a Rerun of 2022
Two Documents, One Winter
On 25 September, EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen wrote to every member state warning of “a price crisis linking to a...
Switzerland Voted to Keep Neutrality Flexible. Its Role as a Mediator Has Already Moved On
A Landslide, and an Empty Resort
On Sunday, Swiss voters rejected the “Safeguard Swiss Neutrality” initiative by 70.2% to 29.8%. Not a single canton voted...
Washington’s Diesel Ban Would Hit Its Allies Harder Than Iran Does
A Phone Call, a Denial, and a Meeting in Brussels
On the evening of 23 September, Energy Secretary Chris Wright reportedly told energy executives that...