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The Market Isn’t Smarter Than the CIA. It’s Just Closer to the Leak
Six weeks before US and Israeli aircraft killed Iran's supreme leader on February 28, a cluster of new, previously dormant crypto wallets began buying...
Putin’s Kuril Islands Visit Exposes Japan’s Russian Energy Dilemma
Japan's protest over Putin's visit to the Kuril Islands is loud because its response is capped: Tokyo cannot meaningfully sanction the one Russian energy...
How the Mecca Pact Rewires Tehran’s Nuclear Calculus
On August 7th, with American warships blockading Iranian ports and Iranian fast boats still harassing tankers off the Omani coast, the leaders of Saudi...
Hormuz Is Yesterday’s Crisis. Bab-el-Mandeb Is Tomorrow’s
On Tuesday, three Houthi ballistic missiles slammed into the Tihamah, an Egyptian-owned cargo ship easing through Bab-el-Mandeb's eighteen-mile channel. A fourth missile hit the...
Why Is the Real Fight Over the UN Security Council Happening Outside It?
Eighteen Years, Zero Texts
On July 28, the UN General Assembly did what it has done every year since the effort began: it rolled Security...
Vienna Backchannel: Is Europe Building Its Own Ukraine Endgame?
A Room in Vienna That Washington Did Not Book
In July, in a private room in Vienna, three men who used to run European foreign...
El Tigre, Ceuta, and the Illusion of a Unified Right
On 7 August, Abelardo de la Espriella — a Colombian-Italian-American lawyer nicknamed "El Tigre," whom Donald Trump had called a future "great president" months...
Who Actually Controls the Money Meant to Rebuild Gaza?
On July 30, Gaza's parties signed a disarmament roadmap that Washington called a historic breakthrough, the latest turn in a sequencing fight this outlet...
Why the Shadow Fleet’s Baltic Reckoning Won’t Look Like the Mediterranean’s
On August 2nd, Italian commandos rappelled from a helicopter onto the deck of the Toa Payoh, a Russian-linked crude carrier, in the Mediterranean. It...
Missile OPEC: The Physical Ceiling on a Three-Front Strategy
On Monday, as Taiwan entered the final week of its largest-ever Han Kuang war games, a Greek-owned Patriot battery arrived in Saudi Arabia to...