More: premium
A Lame-Duck Trump Before 2028?
Commitments With a Date Stamp
On 13 October, after Houthi missiles hit Saudi infrastructure, Donald Trump sent Riyadh a promise on Truth Social: "I'll be...
Trading the Border for the Ministries: Europe’s Quiet Exit From Armenia’s Strategic Terrain
On 19 February 2027, the mandate of the European Union Mission in Armenia expires. The date has attracted little attention outside Yerevan and Baku,...
After 3 November, the Brakes Come Off
A Promise With an Expiry Date
On 8 October, Donald Trump made a promise with a date attached. “We will not be attacking Iran at...
Owning the Weapon Is No Longer Enough: Starlink and the New Military Sovereignty
One Hundred Miles an Hour
On the night of 14 October, Ukraine's military satellite link stopped working above 100 miles an hour. Ground units using...
Rubio in Samarkand: Why Central Asia Now Treats US Sanctions as a Bargaining Chip
A Waiver Two Days Before Samarkand
Marco Rubio landed in Samarkand on Sunday for his first trip to Central Asia as secretary of state, with...
Below the Threshold: Why the Black Sea Is NATO’s Hardest Flank to Defend
In little more than a week, three merchant ships have gone to the bottom of the Black Sea inside the exclusive economic zones of...
The Bypass Is the Target: What This Week’s Gulf Escalation Reveals About Energy Security
On Tuesday, a Houthi missile strike set fire to part of Saudi Aramco's executive headquarters in Dhahran, the administrative heart of the kingdom's oil...
Sanctions as a Price Lever: What the Diesel Deal Reveals About the Transatlantic Split Over Ukraine
When Donald Trump announced on 9 October that Vladimir Putin would release Russian diesel onto world markets, it read at first like another episode...
The Black Sea Has Quietly Closed
Twenty-One Ships
In August, Ukraine's Black Sea ports recorded 21 ship calls, about 90% fewer than a year earlier. A month later, on 16 September,...
Ukraine’s Refinery Strikes Have Become a US Election Issue
"Don't Hit Refineries"
On 10 October, standing outside the White House, Donald Trump gave Ukraine a targeting instruction. "Don't hit refineries. There's plenty of targets,"...