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The Bond Market Is Now a Geopolitical Actor
Three Records in Two Days
On Wednesday, 1 October, the US 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.34%, its highest since 2002. The same day, Britain’s 30-year...
Emptying the Embassies: Russia’s Campaign Against Kyiv as a Functioning Capital
Two Bridges and a Warning
At about 11:30 on 1 October, a Russian jet drone struck Kyiv's Southern Bridge while a metro train was crossing...
Greenland Can Choose Independence, But Can It Choose What Comes After?
The Greenland crisis appears to have ended with signatures rather than confrontation. On September 22, 2026, the United States, Denmark and Greenland signed a...
Three Failed NPT Conferences: Is the Nuclear Order Shifting From Rules to Security Alliances?
Three consecutive review conferences have now ended without consensus. When delegates to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference gathered in New York earlier...
Built to Be Announced, Not to Last: The Election Logic Behind a US–Iran Deal
Two Deadlines, One Date
Last Thursday, in Denton, Texas, Donald Trump said Iran is “ready to fold up” and that the war would be won...
The Diesel Weapon
Twenty-Four Hours in October
On 1 October Washington told Europe to release 120 million barrels of diesel from its emergency stocks over six months, or...
Iran’s Strategy After the War: Hormuz, Gulf Tensions and the Risk of Another Conflict
The war involving Iran, Israel and the United States has reshaped the strategic balance across the Middle East, leaving the Strait of Hormuz at...
The End of Cheap Money? Why Record Global Bond Yields Matter for the Global South
5.34% and a Finance Minister's Problem
On Thursday the yield on the 10-year US Treasury touched 5.34%, its highest since 2002. The same day, Britain's...
Kaliningrad: Russia Has Drawn a Nuclear Red Line Around a Blockade That Doesn’t Exist
On 30 September, Russia put a nuclear threat in writing and sent it to NATO. The diplomatic note, seen by Reuters, warned that Moscow...
Europe’s January 2027 Cliff: The Russian LNG Ban Meets Empty Storage
Europe has spent the past four years trying to make sure it would never again depend on Russia for its energy in the way...