Will Democrats’ Midterm Victory Change US Arms Sales to Taiwan?

Taiwan expects continued bipartisan support in the United States for its defence capabilities despite the Democrats' victories in the midterm elections, although uncertainty remains over a stalled $14 billion arms package that President Donald Trump has described as a bargaining tool in dealings with China.

Taiwan expects continued bipartisan support in the United States for its defence capabilities despite the Democrats’ victories in the midterm elections, although uncertainty remains over a stalled $14 billion arms package that President Donald Trump has described as a bargaining tool in dealings with China.

Taiwanese Defence Minister Wellington Koo said on Thursday that support for the island’s security remained strong across both major US political parties. He added that Taipei would continue working with members of Congress and the US Department of War to ensure that approved arms sales proceed as scheduled.

The comments come as Taiwan faces growing pressure from China and seeks clarity over Washington’s military support. Although the United States remains the island’s most important international backer and weapons supplier, the future of the latest arms package has become entangled with Trump’s diplomatic engagement with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Taiwan Relies on Bipartisan Support in Washington

Speaking to reporters at parliament in Taipei, Koo said Taiwan had traditionally received support from both Democrats and Republicans on defence matters.

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“I think the US Congress has always been non-partisan and will support Taiwan in strengthening its defence capabilities,” he said.

He added that Taiwan would maintain communication with congressional members and close contact with the US Department of War to keep arms deliveries on schedule.

Taiwan’s confidence in congressional support reflects the broader strategic importance of the island in US policy towards the Indo-Pacific. Despite having no formal diplomatic relations with Taipei, Washington is legally required to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself.

The US Congress has historically played an important role in maintaining this commitment, making its position significant regardless of which party controls the legislative chambers.

The $14 Billion Arms Package Remains Uncertain

The immediate concern for Taipei is a proposed arms package worth approximately $14 billion that has stalled.

Trump approved an earlier $11 billion arms sale to Taiwan in December, the largest such package in the island’s history. However, the second package has not moved forward.

Following a meeting with Xi in May, Trump described the proposed sale as a useful bargaining chip that he was keeping in abeyance. His comments raised questions about whether military support for Taiwan could become part of wider negotiations between Washington and Beijing.

The uncertainty has persisted despite calls from within Trump’s own party for the administration to release more military assistance. In September, four Republican lawmakers urged the White House to approve more than $15 billion in stalled national security assistance for Taiwan, including the proposed $14 billion package.

The Pentagon had not immediately responded to a request for comment on the latest developments.

Beijing’s Opposition Complicates US Policy

China considers Taiwan part of its territory and regularly identifies arms sales to the island as one of its most sensitive diplomatic issues. Beijing has repeatedly demanded that Washington stop supplying weapons to Taipei.

Taiwan’s democratically elected government rejects China’s sovereignty claims, maintaining that only the island’s people have the right to determine their future.

This disagreement places US arms sales at the centre of wider tensions between Washington and Beijing. For the United States, military assistance is part of its commitment to Taiwan’s self-defence. For China, such transfers are viewed as interference in what it considers an internal matter.

The issue is particularly sensitive as Trump seeks to maintain diplomatic engagement with Xi. The two leaders are expected to meet at least twice more before the end of the year, at the APEC summit in China and the G20 meeting in Florida in December.

Those engagements could influence the timing of future arms decisions, particularly if Washington seeks to avoid further tensions with Beijing during trade and security negotiations.

Could the Arms Package Be Delayed Until 2027?

Analysts in Taiwan expect broad continuity in US policy towards the island, although the timing and structure of arms deliveries remain uncertain.

Chen Fang-yu, an associate professor at Taipei’s Soochow University, said there was considerable agreement between Democrats and Republicans on Taiwan policy. He also suggested that Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his team would remain influential in shaping Washington’s approach to the Indo-Pacific and wider international affairs.

However, Taiwanese officials have acknowledged that the proposed arms package could be delayed until 2027.

Ronan Fu, an assistant research fellow at Academia Sinica, Taiwan’s leading government-backed research institution, suggested that when arms sales resume, they could be divided into separate packages. The overall value, however, could remain broadly unchanged.

Such an arrangement would allow Washington to move forward with military assistance in stages rather than approve the entire package at once.

What Happens Next for Taiwan’s Defence Strategy?

Taipei will be watching Trump’s upcoming meetings with Xi for indications of whether the arms package remains tied to broader US-China negotiations. The outcome could determine when Washington moves forward with the proposed sales and whether they are approved as a single package or in separate stages.

For Taiwan, the central issue is not simply the political balance in Congress but whether bipartisan support translates into timely military deliveries. Delays could complicate defence planning at a time when the island continues to face pressure from Beijing.

The Democrats’ midterm victory is therefore unlikely, on its own, to fundamentally change the congressional consensus on Taiwan. The greater uncertainty lies in how the Trump administration balances its security commitments to Taipei with its diplomatic and economic relationship with Beijing.

With information from Reuters.

Sana Khan
Sana Khan
Sana Khan is the News Editor at Modern Diplomacy. She is a political analyst and researcher focusing on global security, foreign policy, and power politics, driven by a passion for evidence-based analysis. Her work explores how strategic and technological shifts shape the international order.

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