Foreign policy has rarely been a key factor in US midterm elections, which are typically driven by economic issues. However, this time, President Donald Trump’s actions towards Iran and his tariff policies are making foreign policy relevant to voters’ wallets. As the elections on November 3 get closer, many voters are connecting Trump’s international policies to their rising living costs, presenting a serious challenge for him and the Republicans in Congress. A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll indicated that 78% of Americans hold Trump responsible for price increases that exceed their earnings.
This situation resembles the midterms in 2006, when President George W. Bush’s handling of the Iraq War contributed to significant Republican losses. Voters today are more aware of how Trump’s actions have affected them economically, as many experience the strain from high gas prices and grocery bills. Senior fellow Christopher Preble noted that voters now have a way to express their dissatisfaction with Trump’s foreign policies.
With Trump’s approval ratings at historic lows, he recognizes the connection voters are making between his foreign policy and their finances. In response, he has made some controversial decisions, such as lifting sanctions on Russian diesel exports to lower fuel prices, which some critics see as favorable to Russia in its conflict with Ukraine. He is also accused of trying to shift blame for high gas prices onto other factors, while the increased energy costs are largely attributed to the war he initiated with Iran eight months ago. Although Trump has stated he will not escalate attacks on Iran before the elections, preparations for possible military action reportedly continue.
Many American voters oppose the military actions taken by Trump, who initially campaigned against new foreign interventions. He argues that higher gas prices should be tolerated to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, despite Iran claiming its nuclear activities are for peaceful purposes. Some Republicans are distancing themselves from Trump due to his foreign policy decisions.
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Iran is also responding by trying to keep oil prices high, undermining Trump’s position in the midterms through tactics aimed at shipping routes. Defending Trump’s policies, White House spokesman Matt Middleton highlighted the temporary economic disruptions caused by conflicts but contrasted Trump’s record with that of Democrats.
Historical context suggests midterm elections are often a referendum on the sitting president’s performance. The prevailing idea is that economic issues dominate voter preferences. Current polls show that while foreign policy ranks lower in importance for voters, many connect Trump’s international decisions, including the war with Iran and tariffs, to their economic struggles. Additionally, a broader discontent with Trump’s foreign policy has emerged, indicating a negative impact on America’s global standing and economic conditions. Since returning to office, Trump’s approach has disrupted established global norms and strained relations with allies.
Democrats are expected to gain control of the House of Representatives in the midterm elections, with the Senate also becoming competitive. If Republicans lose either chamber, it could hinder Trump’s agenda during the final two years of his term. Regardless of the election outcome, it may still be challenging for lawmakers to limit Trump’s foreign policy actions. A key question after the elections is whether Trump will feel restricted or more confident on the global stage as he enters his lame-duck period. Experts suggest that when presidents feel limited at home, they often act more freely in foreign policy. Trump’s approach to countries like Iran, Russia, and China could vary, or he might focus on domestic projects like his ballroom renovations.
With information from Reuters
