China Isn’t Building a New World Order. It’s Building a Majority in the Old One
Stalling Clubs, Growing Caucus
In mid-September Xi Jinping made his first visit to India in seven years for the BRICS summit in New Delhi. The...
Europe Can Pay for Rearmament. Its Weakest Budgets Can’t
Wages Frozen, Gas Doubled, Warships Wanted
On 1 October Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu unveiled €54 billion of savings in France's 2027 budget. They include a...
Rent the Coast, Don’t Pick a Side: The Horn of Africa’s Middle East Problem
Twenty Kilometres From Africa
On 11 September the Houthis took Mocha and Perim Island and completed their capture of Yemen's Red Sea coast. Iran's Yemeni...
Iran’s Strategy After the War: Hormuz, Gulf Tensions and the Risk of Another Conflict
The war involving Iran, Israel and the United States has reshaped the strategic balance across the Middle East, leaving the Strait of Hormuz at...
Canada Is Building an Exit From the US, One Institution at a Time
Thirteen Days, Four Doors
At 12:01 a.m. on 29 September, a US ban on nearly $1 billion of Canadian goods took effect: whisky, dairy by-products,...
Multi-Alignment Pays, but Washington and Beijing Set the Price
One Week, Three Prices
On 17 September the US State Department notified Congress of a $24.3 billion sale of 48 F-35s to Saudi Arabia. It...
The End of Cheap Money? Why Record Global Bond Yields Matter for the Global South
5.34% and a Finance Minister's Problem
On Thursday the yield on the 10-year US Treasury touched 5.34%, its highest since 2002. The same day, Britain's...
AI’s Race to Transform the World: Can the Money Keep Coming?
Investments in artificial intelligence (AI) are unprecedented, surpassing previous technological booms like railways and the internet. A report from PwC predicts that global spending...
Milei’s Falklands Ultimatum: $100 Oil Thaws a Frozen Dispute
Two Weeks, One Oilfield
On 29 September, Javier Milei gave Britain two weeks to halt the Sea Lion oil project north of the Falkland Islands,...
The New Geography of Energy: Why Refining Capacity May Matter More Than Oil Reserves
Crude Came Back. Diesel Didn't.
This week, seven months after the Iran war shut the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil finally returned to normal. Around...