The US-Iran Memorandum and the Coercion It Leaves in Place
On 17 June, at a dinner hosted by Emmanuel Macron at the Palace of Versailles, Donald Trump put his signature to a memorandum of...
Hegemony, Sovereignty, and the Price of the American Guarantee
The American attempt to end the war with Iran on its own terms has also been an attempt to rearrange the region around it....
What the Pacific Pivot Reveals About Europe
When Pete Hegseth told the Shangri-La Dialogue at the end of May that the United States would prioritize its “model allies,” moving the most...
What Washington Now Wants From Its Allies
On 30 May 2026, speaking at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told an audience of mostly Asian defense officials...
Behave or Be Destroyed: Oman and the Vassal Clause in the American Guarantee
On 27 May, asked at a Cabinet meeting whether he would accept a short-term arrangement under which Iran and Oman would share control of...
How Unpredictability Is Rewriting the Atlantic Alliance
There is a point at which unpredictability ceases to function as a negotiating instrument and begins to function as noise. Donald Trump has not...
Mokhber’s Atomic Bomb: The Misnaming of Riparian Coercion at Hormuz
On 8 May 2026, Mohammad Mokhber, adviser to the Supreme Leader and the man who built Iran’s sanctions-resistance architecture during fourteen years at the...
Infrastructure Attribution and the Invoiced Passage at Hormuz
The Persian Gulf Strait Authority, launched by Iran on 5 May 2026, is the institutional capstone of a longer manoeuvre. Its visible apparatus reduces...
Why OPEC’s Foundational Conditions No Longer Hold for the UAE
The institutions that govern producer cartels rest on a set of conditions that are usually invisible because they hold uniformly across the membership. When...
The Ambiguity Trap: When Strategic Signals Become Systemic Perturbations
On March 31, five weeks into an active war, Pete Hegseth stood before reporters at the Pentagon and articulated what he presented as a...