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China’s New Arctic Gamble Has a Russian Catch
China's new Arctic route cuts the journey from Ningbo to Europe in half. What the headlines aren't saying is that every mile of it...
North Korea’s Piedmont Strategy: Turning the Ukraine War into Regional Advantage
Reports that North Korea may send as many as 30,000 additional troops to support Russia’s war in Ukraine should be assessed as more than...
The U.S. and Iran Will Fight Again Before the Mid-Terms
Iran is very likely to be attacked by the U.S. and Israel in early October of 2026 to preempt an Iranian attack on Israel...
The Market Isn’t Smarter Than the CIA. It’s Just Closer to the Leak
Six weeks before US and Israeli aircraft killed Iran's supreme leader on February 28, a cluster of new, previously dormant crypto wallets began buying...
Putin’s Kuril Islands Visit Exposes Japan’s Russian Energy Dilemma
Japan's protest over Putin's visit to the Kuril Islands is loud because its response is capped: Tokyo cannot meaningfully sanction the one Russian energy...
Japan Releases Defense White Paper: Preparing for a Protracted Conflict Scenario
On August 4, 2026, the administration of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi released the Defense White Paper. The event represents not merely a routine...
Hormuz Is Yesterday’s Crisis. Bab-el-Mandeb Is Tomorrow’s
On Tuesday, three Houthi ballistic missiles slammed into the Tihamah, an Egyptian-owned cargo ship easing through Bab-el-Mandeb's eighteen-mile channel. A fourth missile hit the...
Why Civilian Infrastructure? The Strategic Logic of the U.S. Targeting in the Iran War
With the July 8, 2026, resumption of hostilities between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran, what attracts attention more than the...
Vienna Backchannel: Is Europe Building Its Own Ukraine Endgame?
A Room in Vienna That Washington Did Not Book
In July, in a private room in Vienna, three men who used to run European foreign...
El Tigre, Ceuta, and the Illusion of a Unified Right
On 7 August, Abelardo de la Espriella — a Colombian-Italian-American lawyer nicknamed "El Tigre," whom Donald Trump had called a future "great president" months...