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The Summit Is Not the Relationship: What Xi and Trump Can Actually Stabilize
When Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meet again in Washington, the most important question will not be whether they shake hands, announce another trade...
There’s No Neutral Sensor Left in the Arctic — Here’s What That Means for NATO and China
On 6 June 2026, the NATO research vessel Alliance slipped out of La Spezia, Italy, bound for the High North. Its mission, Task Force...
The Houthi Blockade: Can Saudi Arabia Really Escape Iran’s Trap?
The question is no longer whether Saudi Arabia will respond to the Houthi blockade but what kind of response it can sustain. Riyadh has...
Brussels Can Now Sanction Any Refinery Buying Russian Oil. Why Did It Give the First One Six Months to Comply?
On July 23 the European Union used its newest sanctions tool for the first time. Buried inside its twenty first package against Russia was...
The Patriot Problem: America Can’t Build Missiles Fast Enough
On July 23, Volodymyr Zelensky told Ukrainians that Raytheon wanted to help produce Patriot interceptors on Ukrainian-linked lines. Five days later, Lockheed Martin signed...
The Army That Can’t Do the One Thing It’s Been Asked To Do
Three villages. That is the full extent of Lebanese Armed Forces control under the “pilot zone” framework that Washington brokered in June — Zawtar...
The Barrels OPEC+ Can’t Actually Deliver
On August 12th, Bloomberg reported a number that should unsettle anyone still reading OPEC+'s monthly quota announcements at face value: Russia's actual crude output...
Beijing’s Coalition of Drills: How China Is Renting Normalcy in Contested Waters
By chaining bilateral naval exercises across a widening circle of partners — Russia, Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, Vietnam, and now Indonesia — Beijing is not...
The Invisible Crisis: How Four Wars Built One Food Emergency
What is happening to global food prices right now is not four separate stories. It is one supply shock being assembled in four places...
China and Russia Are Pressuring Japan on Two Fronts. Is a Pacific Pincer Taking Shape?
Putin's Kuril landing is not a bilateral Russia-Japan sovereignty dispute. It is the northern half of a coordinated Sino-Russian pressure campaign on Tokyo —...