When Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meet again in Washington, the most important question will not be whether they shake hands, announce another trade arrangement or produce a carefully worded communiqué. It will be whether two governments that increasingly treat each other as strategic competitors can create enough rules of engagement to prevent competition from becoming confrontation.
That distinction matters because the relationship has already entered an unusual phase. At the leadership level, Washington and Beijing are attempting to stabilise ties. At the policy level, however, competition continues to deepen across trade, technology, security and political influence.
The United States is reportedly considering a new 7.5% tariff on Chinese goods over concerns about excess industrial capacity even as preparations continue for a September summit. Reuters reported that the tariff plan had not been independently verified, but its very emergence illustrates the contradiction surrounding the meeting: diplomacy is being prepared at the same time as economic pressure is being recalibrated.
The summit, in other words, is not a reset.
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It is a test of whether managed rivalry can actually be managed.
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