Supporters of U.S. President Donald Trump appear less enthusiastic about voting in November’s midterm elections than voters who backed former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, raising questions about Republican turnout as control of Congress is contested.
The six-day nationwide poll, completed Monday, found that 48% of voters who supported Harris in the 2024 presidential election said they were “very enthusiastic” about voting in the November 3 midterms. Only 30% of Trump’s 2024 voters said the same.
The gap could matter in a midterm election, when turnout is typically lower than in presidential elections and differences in voter motivation can affect the composition of the electorate.
The poll also found that men, a key part of Trump’s 2024 coalition, were showing signs of movement toward Democrats. Asked how they would vote in a congressional election if it were held today, 43% of men chose a Democratic candidate compared with 39% who chose a Republican.
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That four-point Democratic advantage was the widest recorded among men during Trump’s second term. Male voters had consistently favored Republicans during much of 2025 but have mostly favored Democrats since August, according to the poll.
Trump’s Coalition Shows Signs of Strain
The findings come as Trump’s overall approval rating remains at 32% in the Reuters/Ipsos survey, matching the record low first recorded in September.
Since Trump returned to office in January 2025, his support has declined across several major demographic groups, including Hispanics, men, rural and suburban voters, people without college degrees and evangelical Christians.
Men are particularly significant for Republicans because Trump won male voters by 12 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election, according to Pew Research analysis.
The latest polling suggests that the Republican advantage among older voters, another important midterm constituency, has also narrowed. Voters aged 50 and above favored Republicans by two percentage points, 44% to 42%. That compared with an eight-point Republican advantage in December.
At the same time, Trump’s 2024 voters remain strongly aligned with the Republican Party. But they appear less certain about their congressional choices than Harris supporters. Thirteen percent of Trump voters said they were unsure who they would support in a congressional election, compared with 7% of Harris voters.
Cost of Living Emerges as a Key Issue
Economic concerns are also shaping voters’ priorities.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll found that the cost of living was the issue Americans considered most important when deciding how to vote, followed by democratic values and immigration.
Rising gasoline and diesel prices have added to those concerns following the war with Iran. Trump launched U.S. attacks against Iran in February despite campaigning on promises to avoid new conflicts and reduce costs for American consumers.
The political impact of those economic pressures remains uncertain, but they have become an important part of the debate ahead of the midterms.
Republican strategist Charlie Gerow said the polling underscored the importance of mobilizing Republican voters, arguing that concerns about Democrats gaining power could increase Republican participation as the election approaches.
Turnout Could Shape the Midterm Battle
The enthusiasm gap is particularly notable among voters who already say they are motivated to participate. Among enthusiastic voters surveyed, 62% said they were motivated by opposition to Trump, while 36% said they were eager to support him.
Still, the poll does not necessarily indicate that all less enthusiastic Trump voters will stay home. Many remain committed to Republican candidates, and campaign dynamics can change considerably as Election Day approaches.
The Reuters/Ipsos survey of 4,506 U.S. adults was conducted online nationwide and has a margin of error of two percentage points.
For Republicans, the immediate challenge is therefore not simply maintaining support among existing Trump voters but ensuring that those voters remain motivated enough to participate.
For Democrats, the poll points to a potentially important source of strength: higher enthusiasm among their 2024 voters combined with signs of movement among men, a demographic that had been central to Trump’s electoral coalition.
Whether those differences translate into actual turnout will become clearer on November 3, when voters decide control of both chambers of Congress.
With information from Reuters.
