Representatives from nearly 200 countries are gathering on Turkey’s Mediterranean coast for two weeks of climate negotiations, facing a difficult international environment in which war, energy insecurity and artificial intelligence are competing with efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
The US war with Iran has disrupted oil supplies and encouraged some governments to increase their reliance on coal. Meanwhile, the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence is driving up electricity demand, while the United States is once again stepping away from international climate cooperation.
These competing pressures are expected to complicate efforts by Turkey, the host of COP31, to secure meaningful commitments on climate action. With the world already on course to exceed the 1.5°C warming threshold established under the 2015 Paris Agreement, the summit faces growing pressure to translate climate promises into practical measures.
Turkey Pushes Global Electrification Target
Turkey’s COP31 presidency has placed electrification at the centre of its climate agenda. It wants countries to support a target of electrifying more than one-third of the global economy by 2035, compared with approximately one-fifth today.
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The proposed initiative, known as the 35 by 35 pledge, aims to accelerate the transition from fossil fuel-powered vehicles, heating systems, industrial equipment and cooking technologies towards electricity-based alternatives.
In principle, electrification could significantly reduce emissions by replacing equipment that directly burns coal, oil and gas. However, the proposal has already attracted criticism from climate advocates because it does not require the additional electricity to come from low-carbon sources.
This distinction is important. Electrifying transport, buildings and industry will not necessarily reduce global emissions if the electricity powering them continues to come primarily from fossil fuels.
The disagreement could become one of the summit’s early political challenges. Governments must determine whether electrification should be treated as an independent measure of climate progress or whether it must be accompanied by stronger commitments to renewable and other low-carbon energy sources.
Fossil Fuel Phase-Out Remains a Major Dividing Line
A coalition of countries, including vulnerable South Pacific island states, is seeking a clearer global roadmap for moving away from fossil fuels. These governments face particularly severe risks from rising sea levels and argue that existing climate commitments are insufficient to protect their populations.
However, oil- and gas-producing countries continue to resist approaches that would require a rapid reduction in fossil fuel consumption. Saudi Arabia and other producers maintain that oil and gas can remain part of the global energy mix if technologies are deployed to reduce or capture their emissions.
The disagreement reflects a longstanding divide in international climate negotiations. Developing countries often emphasise their need for affordable energy and economic development, while climate-vulnerable states demand faster reductions in emissions to limit the damage they are already experiencing.
The challenge for Turkey will be to find common ground between these competing priorities without producing another agreement based largely on voluntary commitments.
The urgency is reinforced by a United Nations Environment Programme report published in October, which warned that the world is already on course to exceed 1.5°C of warming above pre-industrial levels.
Extreme weather events have further highlighted the consequences. Western Europe experienced a series of severe heatwaves in 2026, while a glacier collapse in Nepal triggered catastrophic flooding that killed more than 1,450 people, with thousands still missing.
For vulnerable countries, these disasters demonstrate that climate change is no longer a distant environmental concern but an immediate threat to lives, infrastructure and economic stability.
Iran War Exposes the Conflict Between Energy Security and Climate Goals
The conflict involving Iran has introduced another complication into global climate diplomacy by exposing the vulnerability of international energy supplies.
Disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have pushed fuel prices higher and forced governments to search for alternative supplies. The crisis has also encouraged some countries to reconsider their dependence on imported energy and strengthen domestic production.
The Trump administration has promoted increased oil, gas and coal production in response to the disruption. Several Asian countries, including South Korea, India and Thailand, have also increased their reliance on coal or taken steps to expand coal-fired electricity generation.
This trend threatens to undermine efforts to reduce emissions, particularly if governments treat the energy crisis as justification for long-term investment in fossil fuel infrastructure.
Harvard professor John Holdren argues that the conflict has strengthened the position of those advocating continued high fossil fuel consumption. However, the crisis has also reinforced the argument that renewable energy can improve national energy security by reducing dependence on vulnerable international supply routes.
Brazilian diplomat Andre Correa do Lago, who presided over last year’s COP, has argued that the war has strengthened the case for accelerating the energy transition, with the United States increasingly standing apart from this approach.
The contrasting responses illustrate a central dilemma facing climate policymakers: energy security and emissions reduction are not necessarily competing objectives, but governments may prioritise immediate supply concerns over longer-term climate commitments.
China’s Clean Technology and the AI Challenge
China’s expanding clean technology exports are providing another important dimension to the negotiations. The availability of relatively inexpensive renewable energy technologies is helping countries accelerate deployment, offering an alternative to the renewed investment in fossil fuels.
However, the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence is creating a new source of pressure on electricity systems.
Data centres and other AI infrastructure require substantial amounts of power, and rising demand could increase emissions if additional electricity is generated through coal and natural gas. At the same time, governments and businesses are reluctant to slow AI development because of its economic, technological and strategic importance.
This creates a difficult balance for climate policymakers. Artificial intelligence could support more efficient energy management and help optimise electricity networks, but its growing infrastructure requirements also risk increasing global energy consumption.
Turkey intends to address the issue through a separate pledge establishing principles for the sustainable development and deployment of AI. The initiative is intended to bring governments, businesses and other institutions into discussions about the technology’s environmental impact.
The challenge will be ensuring that sustainability commitments influence actual investment and infrastructure decisions rather than remaining voluntary declarations.
Businesses Demand Clearer Climate Policies
The private sector is also seeking greater certainty from COP31. Businesses considering investments in electrification, renewable energy and climate adaptation need predictable policies and clearer signals from governments.
John Denton, secretary general of the International Chamber of Commerce, has called for the summit to move beyond voluntary initiatives and establish clearer conditions for investment.
His argument reflects a broader concern among businesses that climate commitments are often announced without the regulatory frameworks, financing arrangements and implementation plans needed to deliver them.
This is particularly important for developing countries, where adaptation projects frequently face financing constraints despite growing exposure to climate-related disasters. Turning adaptation priorities into commercially viable projects could help attract investment, but governments and international financial institutions will need to address the risks that currently discourage private capital.
What Happens Next?
COP31 will test whether governments can maintain climate cooperation while facing competing pressures from geopolitical conflict, energy insecurity and technological expansion.
Turkey’s electrification target offers a potential framework for accelerating the transition, but disagreements over electricity sources and the future of fossil fuels could limit its effectiveness. The Iran war has strengthened arguments for both domestic fossil fuel production and renewable energy independence, while AI is adding another layer of uncertainty to future electricity demand.
For climate-vulnerable countries, the stakes are particularly high. Exceeding the 1.5°C threshold would intensify pressure on communities already experiencing extreme heat, flooding and other climate-related disasters.
The summit’s success will therefore depend less on the number of pledges announced than on whether governments agree on credible implementation, financing and emissions-reduction measures. Without clearer commitments, COP31 risks becoming another demonstration of the widening gap between international climate ambitions and the political and economic decisions shaping the global energy system.
With information from Reuters.
