The Bond Market Is Now a Geopolitical Actor
Three Records in Two Days
On Wednesday, 1 October, the US 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.34%, its highest since 2002. The same day, Britain’s 30-year...
US Pays 5.3%, China Lends at 1.7%: Who Wins as the Treasury Sell-Off Turns the Yuan Into the World’s Cheap Money?
Today’s Numbers
5.3% (US 10-year Treasury yield) · 1.70% (China 10-year government bond yield) · ¥358bn (offshore “dim sum” bond issuance, H1 2026). A gap...
Emptying the Embassies: Russia’s Campaign Against Kyiv as a Functioning Capital
Two Bridges and a Warning
At about 11:30 on 1 October, a Russian jet drone struck Kyiv's Southern Bridge while a metro train was crossing...
Ban Keun and the Quiet Expansion of China’s Overseas Military Bases
A Runway Next Door to Wing 23
In August, Chinese J-10C and J-11 fighters and an airborne early-warning aircraft spent eleven days flying out of...
Suspected Iran Plot Targeting Fairford Airbase: What Happened?
The United States has taken its fleet of bombers away from a British airbase following the arrest of five men suspected of planning terrorist...
Rising US Bond Yields Put Washington Under Pressure: What Comes Next?
The US government is facing increased borrowing costs, with long-term Treasury yields nearing their highest levels in twenty years. This situation is fueled by...
Houthis Hit Aramco, Iran Keeps Hormuz Shut: What Markets Are Pricing In for Oil, the Dollar and Europe’s Bonds This Week
TODAY'S NUMBERS: $102 (Brent crude) · 5.18% (US 10-year Treasury yield, Friday) · $4,137 (Gold, down 3% on the week). A wartime oil price...
After the Strategic Reserves Run Dry
Two-Thirds Gone, Winter Ahead
On 30 September the US Department of Energy put the last 40 million barrels of its share of March’s emergency release...
The Diesel Weapon
Twenty-Four Hours in October
On 1 October Washington told Europe to release 120 million barrels of diesel from its emergency stocks over six months, or...
Both Shores of the Bab el-Mandeb Are Now at War
A Charge Sheet Aimed at the Sea
On 29 September, Ethiopia's army chief, Field Marshal Birhanu Jula, told the country that its soldiers were fighting...