Ukraine’s Refinery Strikes Have Become a US Election Issue
"Don't Hit Refineries"
On 10 October, standing outside the White House, Donald Trump gave Ukraine a targeting instruction. "Don't hit refineries. There's plenty of targets,"...
Greece’s $4bn Bet: How Washington Is Rebuilding Its Eastern Mediterranean Around Athens
The Visit That Skipped Ankara
On 7 October, Marco Rubio and Greek Foreign Minister Giorgos Gerapetritis closed the sixth US–Greece Strategic Dialogue in Athens with...
Brazil Election: How the Vote Could Reshape US Trade, Tariffs and Critical Minerals
In the upcoming presidential runoff in Brazil, two candidates, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro and incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, represent very different visions...
The Fed Is Pulling Hot Money Out of Asia. Gulf Money Is Edging In — Who Gains the Leverage?
TODAY'S NUMBERS
$26.3bn (EM portfolio outflows, September) · 5.29% (US 10-year yield peak, 29 September) · 13% (Asia's share of Mubadala's portfolio, up from 10%)....
Make or Break in Beijing: Can the EU Get Anything Real From China by October?
A Chemical Nobody Had Heard Of
On 3 October, five days before EU trade commissioner Maroš Šefčovič landed in Beijing, China's commerce ministry opened an...
The Black Sea’s Quiet Shipping War Reaches NATO Waters
Seventy Miles Off Byala
At about 3am on 6 October, aerial and sea drones struck two Turkish-owned cargo ships some 70 nautical miles off the...
Europe’s Record Russia Blacklist: Who Pays, Who Profits — and Why €185 Billion in Brussels Still Decides the Financial War
Today's Numbers
1,646 (new EU Russia listings agreed 7 October) · ~4,650 (total names on the EU's Russia list once adopted) · €185bn (Russian central-bank...
Pakistan’s Military Expands Gulf Role as Parliament Sits on the Sidelines
Eleven years after Pakistan decided against joining a Saudi-led intervention in Yemen, the country has now agreed to send more forces to Saudi Arabia...
Why the Road Back to US-Iran Talks Still Runs Through Islamabad?
The June framework has become the shared vocabulary of the US-Iran conflict. Turning a reference point back into a process is a harder task,...
The Blockade That Doesn’t Exist: How Europe Could Stumble Across Russia’s Kaliningrad Red Line
A Note About a Plan Nobody Has
On 30 September Russia sent NATO members a written note claiming it had information that the alliance was...