More: Analysis
Trump’s Iran Opening Sinks Oil: What Markets Are Pricing In Before He Meets Xi
TODAY'S NUMBERS
$100.65 (Brent crude, -3.1%) · $4,355 (gold, per oz.) · 3.75%-4.00% (Fed funds rate)
Oil is pricing in Iranian de-escalation while gold barely moves —...
How Putin Could Use Russia’s Election Result to Strengthen His Grip
Russians are participating in a three-day parliamentary election that is expected to confirm the ruling United Russia party's control in a political system that...
AI’s Power Bill Is About to Become a Geopolitical Story, Not Just a Utility One
This summer the Nuclear Regulatory Commission concluded that restarting Three Mile Island's Unit 1 — the plant synonymous with nuclear disaster since 1979 —...
Germany’s Bond Market Isn’t Pricing This Crisis At All
Ten-year Bund yields hit their highest level since 2011 the week the AfD won 43.8% of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt — the worst state...
Why the Fed’s Hike Won’t Bring Gulf Money Back to Wall Street
TODAY'S NUMBERS:
3.75%–4.00% (Fed's new rate, first hike since 2023) · 100.07 (Dollar Index) · $127.08bn (Korea's 2026 portfolio outflow). The dollar's rebound is being...
UK-EU Reset: Is Financial Decoupling and Energy Security Undermining the New Partnership?
Three years after Brexit, the UK-EU relationship is not converging. Financial services are diverging deliberately, defense integration is off limits, and energy markets face...
Söder’s Loyalty to Merz Is Real. It’s Also Free
Within days of the CDU's worst-ever state election result, CSU leader Markus Söder ruled out any move against Chancellor Friedrich Merz "under no circumstances,"...
Europe Reopens the Frozen-Assets Fight: Who Wins If Russia’s €210 Billion Finally Moves?
TODAY'S NUMBERS
$4,307 (gold, a record) · 4.99% (US 10-year Treasury yield, a 19-year high) · $104.59 (Brent crude, down for a second day). Record...
The Most Dangerous Number in Germany’s Sunday Votes Isn’t the AfD’s
In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, incumbent SPD premier Manuela Schwesig leads her AfD challenger, Leif-Erik Holm, 60% to 25% in head-to-head polling. It is not close. And...
The Real Story Behind Canada’s EU Deal Isn’t Membership. It’s Minerals
Three weeks before today's ceremony in Strasbourg, American negotiators put a specific demand on the table in Ottawa: a right of first refusal on...