Economy
The Fed’s First Hike in Three Years: Why the Dollar and Gold Are Rising Together
TODAY'S NUMBERS: 5.00% (US 10-year Treasury yield, first close above that level since 2023) · 99.5 (Dollar Index, its highest in weeks) · $4,300...
Could Trump’s $5,000 checks complicate Warsh’s Fed strategy?
President Donald Trump’s proposal to give Americans $5,000 payments is raising questions about how the plan could affect U.S. monetary policy, particularly as Federal...
Central Banks Are Buying Gold Like De-Dollarization Is Already Happening — Are They Right?
Central banks' record, price-insensitive gold buying is a more credible signal of the dollar's structural trajectory than this year's currency markets, because FX markets...
Trump’s Silence on Hormuz Is Now a Fed Problem: What Markets Are Pricing In This Week
TODAY'S NUMBERS: $108 (Brent crude)  ·  4.98% (US 10-year Treasury yield)  ·  $4,330 (Gold) Oil is pricing a wider Gulf war, yields are pricing...
Do Sanctions Still Work? Russia, Iran and Sudan Say No
On February 1st, the G7's price cap on Russian crude oil quietly reset itself to $44.10 a barrel — down from $47.60, and a...
Russia-Africa Policy Debates
With the heightening of the current geopolitics, many African governments have increasingly welcomed economic, diplomatic, and security ties with Russia. And noticeably, Russia's engagements...
Institutional Money Is Rushing Into America. Central Banks Are Rushing Into Gold. Both Are Reading the Same Signal
TODAY'S NUMBERS:
4.94% (US 10-year Treasury yield, near a three-year high) · 289 tonnes (record Q2 central-bank gold buying) · $53.9bn (Gulf funds' record H1...
How Did China’s Oil Majors Prepare the Country for an Energy Crisis?
China’s state owned oil companies have spent years preparing for the possibility of major disruptions to global energy supplies, investments that are now helping...
The US Just Bombed Iran’s Shadow Fleet: What Happens to Oil, Banks and the Next Sanctions War?
TODAY'S NUMBERS:
$100 (Brent crude, after Wednesday's tanker strikes) · 4.92% (US 10-year Treasury yield) · $4,440 (gold, per troy ounce)
Oil and yields are climbing...
Gold Up, Dollar Down, Yields Rising: What Kevin Warsh’s Fed Is Doing to the Reserve Currency
TODAY'S NUMBERS:
$4,388 (gold, per ounce) · 98.6 (dollar index, four-month low) · 4.8% (10-year Treasury yield, highest since 2023). Gold and yields normally move...