Rubio in Samarkand: Why Central Asia Now Treats US Sanctions as a Bargaining Chip
A Waiver Two Days Before Samarkand
Marco Rubio landed in Samarkand on Sunday for his first trip to Central Asia as secretary of state, with...
Saudi Arabia Is Buying Allies, Not an Alliance
An Adjourned Session in Cairo
On Sunday, Egypt's parliament met in emergency session to authorise military support for Saudi Arabia, and then adjourned without a...
Trump Blames Aides as Republican Midterm Election Prospects Fade
President Donald Trump is criticizing his senior aides and campaign strategists for a weak midterm election strategy, questioning how campaign funds are being spent,...
Eastern Congo Rebellion: Can a New Leader and New Name Change the Course of the Conflict?
Former Democratic Republic of Congo President Joseph Kabila has taken charge of rebel forces in the eastern regions, marking a significant shift in the...
Trump-Zelenskiy Clash Puts Ukraine’s Critical US Military Support at Risk
This week has seen a deterioration in the relationship between Ukraine and the United States, primarily due to US threats to reduce intelligence support...
Can Europe Replace Starlink and US Satellite Intelligence as Ukraine Faces Growing Risks?
Ukraine is facing significant issues with Starlink satellite internet, which is impacting its military operations and air defense systems. Ukrainian officials reported problems with...
The Black Sea Has Quietly Closed
Twenty-One Ships
In August, Ukraine's Black Sea ports recorded 21 ship calls, about 90% fewer than a year earlier. A month later, on 16 September,...
The Waiver Is the Policy: What 19 October Will Reveal About Who Washington Really Sanctions
A Licence Signed Before the Ink Was Dry
On 9 October, three weeks after Donald Trump signed the most sweeping Russia sanctions statute of his...
Trump-Putin Diesel Deal Explained: What We Know and What It Means for Global Oil Markets
US President Donald Trump is taking steps to reduce diesel prices by lifting sanctions on Russian diesel exports and declaring a ceasefire on energy...
Diesel Diplomacy: A Weekend Peace Discount Meets a Gulf War Premium — and the Bond Market Prices the Fed Instead
Today's Numbers
~$103 (Brent on Monday morning, off a weekend spike above $105) · 5.24% (US 10-year Treasury yield at Friday's close) · 74.5% (Polymarket...