Borrowed Time in the Strait of Hormuz
Crude oil is flowing out of the Gulf again, but the market is no better prepared for another disruption in the Strait of Hormuz....
America is Running Out of Margin in Iran
The consequences of the war with Iran are now showing up far beyond the Middle East. U.S. Patriot missile stocks in Europe are reportedly...
America Asked Allies to Do More. They Are Also Preparing for a Less Predictable Washington
Taiwan has proposed an 18% increase in its defense budget for 2027, pushing military spending above 3% of GDP as Chinese military and political...
Saudi Arabia’s Strategic Squeeze
Authors: John A. Calabrese and Aaron Jon Pasha*
Saudi Arabia’s approach to the Iran war has been defined by a sustained effort to avoid direct...
China’s Private Security Companies in the Middle East: Commercial Actors, Strategic Tools
Chinese PSCs are state-adjacent actors embedded in China’s overseas economic expansion, particularly under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), generating new arenas of US–China...
Pause, Not Peace: The Iran Ceasefire Framework
A tentative U.S.–Iran memorandum of understanding appeared close to completion in late May, but Iran’s decision to suspend indirect talks over Israel’s expanding operations...
How China Is Positioning Itself Ahead of the Trump–Xi Summit
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has just concluded a two-day visit (April 9–10) to North Korea, in his first trip to Pyongyang in more...
Suspended Between Escalation and Exit: The U.S.–Iran War’s Strategic Deadlock
Entering the second month of the war with Iran, the United States has delivered substantial military effects without articulating a viable political end state—a...
Post-Saddam Iraq at 23: The War It Never Wanted Is Back
On the anniversary of the 2003 invasion, Iraq finds itself trapped between the same external powers that have defined — and destroyed — its...
Known Unknowns and Unknown Unknowns: The US-Israeli War on Iran
Modern wars are fought not only with weapons but with assumptions—and the most dangerous assumptions are often invisible to those making them. Donald Rumsfeld’s...