Fighting is happening in northern Ethiopia between federal troops and a rebel alliance led by Tigrayan forces. This conflict resembles the earlier civil war from 2020 to 2022, which resulted in massive casualties. However, the current situation is more complex, affecting the entire Horn of Africa region, which is now more unstable.
The fighting involves various countries with deep-rooted conflicts and alliances. Countries like Chad and others in the Middle East influence the situation, and conflicts in one area can affect relationships in another. This complexity raises concerns that the war could spread beyond Ethiopia. Unlike during the previous war, Ethiopia and Eritrea are on opposite sides this time. Both countries are also involved in the situation in neighboring Sudan, where ongoing strife has heightened regional tensions.
Tension is further increased by conflicts in Somalia and the influence of foreign powers. The ongoing Iran war and the involvement of Yemen’s Houthis impact trade routes in the area. Additionally, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are in conflict over their interests, which have extended into the Horn of Africa.
In the last Ethiopian civil war, Eritrea allied with the Ethiopian government. Now, Eritrea is accused by Ethiopia of supporting the rebels, which Eritrea denies. There’s a history of conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea, including a war from 1998 to 2000 and disputes over maritime access lost when Eritrea became independent. Both Sudan and Egypt are accused of supporting Eritrea against Ethiopia’s efforts, while they both oppose Ethiopia’s hydroelectric dam development that might affect their water supply.
Sudan faces internal conflict between its military and paramilitary groups, leading to a humanitarian crisis. Both sides rely on external support, with the UAE backing the Ethiopian government and reportedly supporting the RSF, which Ethiopia also denies supporting. Sudan’s military has ties to Egypt and Eritrea, with some Tigrayan forces reportedly allied with Sudan’s army.
In recent years, the UAE has increased its influence in the Horn of Africa by investing significantly and forming diplomatic relationships. It has made agreements with regions in Somalia to help Ethiopia gain access to the Red Sea. Saudi Arabia is wary of the UAE’s actions and builds alliances against Ethiopia, aligning with Sudan’s military, Egypt, and Eritrea, which are all opponents of Ethiopia.
With information from Reuters
