The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is preparing for a major regional summit in Manila as its 11 members confront mounting economic, political and security challenges. The Iran war has increased pressure on energy supplies and regional economies, while intensifying US-China competition is testing Southeast Asia’s ability to maintain an independent diplomatic position.
Closer to home, the bloc faces unresolved disputes in the South China Sea, renewed tensions between Thailand and Cambodia, and the continuing civil war in Myanmar. These overlapping crises highlight both ASEAN’s importance as a regional diplomatic platform and the limitations of its consensus-based approach.
As major powers prepare to engage with Southeast Asian leaders, understanding ASEAN’s structure, economic influence and strategic role is essential to understanding the region’s position in global politics.
1. What Is ASEAN and Why Was It Established?
ASEAN was established on August 8, 1967, when Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand signed the Bangkok Declaration.
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Its original purpose was to strengthen economic and political cooperation, promote regional peace and stability, and reduce the risk of conflict among Southeast Asian countries.
The organisation emerged in a region shaped by political instability, competing national interests and Cold War rivalries. Its founding members sought a framework through which governments could manage disagreements through dialogue rather than confrontation.
Unlike the European Union, ASEAN does not have a central institution with the authority to impose binding decisions on member governments. Instead, it operates through consultation, consensus and respect for national sovereignty.
This approach has allowed countries with very different political systems and strategic priorities to cooperate, although it can also make collective responses to regional crises difficult.
2. Who Are ASEAN’s Members and How Powerful Is the Bloc?
ASEAN has expanded considerably since its establishment. Brunei joined in 1984, followed by Vietnam in 1995, Laos and Myanmar in 1997, and Cambodia in 1999. Timor-Leste became its 11th member in October 2025.
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The bloc represents a major economic and demographic centre:
- Population: Approximately 693.2 million people in 2025, equivalent to 8.4% of the global population.
- Combined economic output: Approximately $4.3 trillion, which would make ASEAN the world’s fifth-largest economy if treated as a single economic unit.
- Goods trade: Approximately $4.4 trillion.
ASEAN’s economic integration agenda is organised around the ASEAN Economic Community, which seeks to establish a single market and production base. However, non-tariff barriers, differences in regulatory systems and uneven economic development continue to limit integration.
The bloc’s strategic diversity is equally important. Its members maintain different political systems, economic priorities and security relationships with Washington and Beijing. Four members also have formal claims in the South China Sea, making consensus on maritime disputes particularly difficult.
3. What Has ASEAN Achieved, and Which Crises Have Tested It?
One of ASEAN’s most important achievements has been the development of a regional diplomatic system that brings countries with different interests into regular dialogue.
Its forums provide opportunities for major powers, including China, the United States, Russia, Japan and India, to engage with Southeast Asian governments. This has helped establish ASEAN as an important platform for regional diplomacy.
The bloc has also expanded economic cooperation through free-trade agreements and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which connects Southeast Asian economies with China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.
However, ASEAN’s ability to manage economic crises has generally been stronger than its capacity to resolve political and security disputes.
The 1997–1998 Asian financial crisis exposed the vulnerability of regional economies to financial shocks. It helped encourage closer cooperation with China, Japan and South Korea, including the establishment of the Chiang Mai Initiative in 2000. That initiative has since developed into a $240 billion regional financial safety net.
In 2026, ASEAN also added a facility designed to provide rapid liquidity during sudden disruptions, including natural disasters and pandemics.
Political and security challenges have proved more difficult. The continuing conflict in Myanmar, tensions between Thailand and Cambodia, and competing territorial claims in the South China Sea have exposed the limits of ASEAN’s consensus-based decision-making.
4. What Does ASEAN Centrality Mean?
ASEAN centrality is the principle that Southeast Asian countries should collectively remain at the centre of regional institutions and diplomatic arrangements rather than allowing larger external powers to determine the region’s political and security agenda.
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The concept gives smaller and middle-sized countries a stronger collective voice in relations with major powers. Through ASEAN-led forums, member states can bring Washington, Beijing and other influential governments into the same diplomatic framework.
This role is particularly important as US-China competition intensifies. Southeast Asian governments have significant economic relationships with China, while many also maintain security partnerships with the United States.
However, ASEAN centrality faces growing pressure. Its consensus requirement can delay decisions, while its principle of non-interference limits its ability to influence domestic political developments in member states.
The organisation also lacks enforcement mechanisms capable of compelling governments to change their policies. Consequently, ASEAN can facilitate negotiations and express collective positions, but it cannot always ensure that members or external powers follow through.
5. What Is on the Agenda for the Manila Summit?
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The 49th ASEAN Summit, scheduled for November 15–17 in Manila, is expected to address energy security, artificial intelligence and transboundary pollution, alongside several longstanding regional conflicts.
Energy security and the Middle East conflict
The Iran war has made energy security a more urgent concern for Southeast Asian governments. Disruptions to fuel supplies and rising energy prices threaten economic stability, particularly for countries dependent on imported energy.
The summit is expected to provide an opportunity for leaders to discuss regional coordination and ways to reduce vulnerability to external supply shocks.
Artificial intelligence and technological cooperation
The Philippines has made artificial intelligence a priority during its ASEAN chairmanship. Discussions are expected to address the technology’s growing economic importance and the need for regional cooperation as governments seek to benefit from AI development.
Myanmar’s continuing political crisis
ASEAN’s five-point consensus, designed to end violence and facilitate political dialogue in Myanmar, has failed to stop the fighting. The crisis remains one of the bloc’s most serious tests because it challenges ASEAN’s ability to respond collectively to instability within its own membership.
Thailand-Cambodia tensions
A ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia has held since December, but the underlying border dispute remains unresolved. The issue continues to raise concerns about regional stability and ASEAN’s capacity to manage disagreements between member states.
Transboundary haze and environmental cooperation
Air pollution has returned as a regional concern following Indonesian wildfires that affected Singapore and Malaysia. Transboundary haze illustrates how environmental problems can cross national borders and require coordinated responses.
South China Sea disputes
Maritime tensions remain another major challenge. ASEAN continues negotiating a code of conduct with China, while confrontations and competing territorial claims complicate efforts to establish a stable regional framework.
6. Why the US-China Rivalry Will Matter Beyond the Summit
The Manila gathering will also provide an important diplomatic setting for major-power engagement.
The White House has announced that Trump will hold a special summit with ASEAN leaders on November 17 and meet Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.
For Washington, Southeast Asia is strategically important because of its economic growth, maritime geography and position within the wider Indo-Pacific. China, meanwhile, has extensive trade and investment relationships across the region and remains central to many ASEAN economies.
The challenge for ASEAN members is to preserve their strategic autonomy while maintaining productive relationships with both powers.
Many governments do not want to be forced into choosing between Washington and Beijing. Instead, they seek to maintain economic cooperation with China while retaining security partnerships and diplomatic engagement with the United States.
This balancing strategy is becoming increasingly difficult as geopolitical competition expands into trade, technology, maritime security and supply chains.
What Happens Next?
The Manila summit will test whether ASEAN can translate its diplomatic influence into coordinated responses to the challenges facing Southeast Asia.
Energy security and AI may offer opportunities for practical cooperation, while Myanmar, Thailand-Cambodia tensions and South China Sea disputes will test the organisation’s political credibility.
Ultimately, ASEAN’s importance does not come from its ability to impose decisions on its members. Its influence rests on its capacity to keep regional governments engaged, provide a platform for major-power diplomacy and prevent Southeast Asia from becoming entirely shaped by external rivalries.
As US-China competition intensifies and global conflicts create economic uncertainty, maintaining that collective diplomatic role may become ASEAN’s most important strategic task.
With information from Reuters.
