More: Finance of Geopolitics
Diesel Diplomacy: A Weekend Peace Discount Meets a Gulf War Premium — and the Bond Market Prices the Fed Instead
Today's Numbers
~$103 (Brent on Monday morning, off a weekend spike above $105) · 5.24% (US 10-year Treasury yield at Friday's close) · 74.5% (Polymarket...
The Fed Is Pulling Hot Money Out of Asia. Gulf Money Is Edging In — Who Gains the Leverage?
TODAY'S NUMBERS
$26.3bn (EM portfolio outflows, September) · 5.29% (US 10-year yield peak, 29 September) · 13% (Asia's share of Mubadala's portfolio, up from 10%)....
Europe’s Record Russia Blacklist: Who Pays, Who Profits — and Why €185 Billion in Brussels Still Decides the Financial War
Today's Numbers
1,646 (new EU Russia listings agreed 7 October) · ~4,650 (total names on the EU's Russia list once adopted) · €185bn (Russian central-bank...
US Pays 5.3%, China Lends at 1.7%: Who Wins as the Treasury Sell-Off Turns the Yuan Into the World’s Cheap Money?
Today’s Numbers
5.3% (US 10-year Treasury yield) · 1.70% (China 10-year government bond yield) · ¥358bn (offshore “dim sum” bond issuance, H1 2026). A gap...
Houthis Hit Aramco, Iran Keeps Hormuz Shut: What Markets Are Pricing In for Oil, the Dollar and Europe’s Bonds This Week
TODAY'S NUMBERS: $102 (Brent crude) · 5.18% (US 10-year Treasury yield, Friday) · $4,137 (Gold, down 3% on the week). A wartime oil price...
Europe Trades Two Oligarchs for a Three-Year Freeze as Washington Aims at Russia’s Oil Buyers: Who Wins, Who Pays?
TODAY'S NUMBERS
36 months (the EU's new Russia asset-freeze renewal cycle, up from six) · 100% (top US tariff on Russia's five biggest buyers) ·...
Treasuries Break 5% as the Fed Turns Hawkish: What Happens to the Dollar, Gold and America’s Borrowing Power?
TODAY'S NUMBERS
5.06% (US 10-year Treasury yield, highest since 2007) · 100.9 (Dollar index, seven-week high) · 1,000+ tonnes (China's gold imports, January–August)
The world is...
Beijing’s Two-Track Money Play: A Stronger Yuan for Washington, a Harder Line on Belt and Road Debt
Today's Numbers
$126.4bn (China's record H1 2026 Belt and Road engagement) · 8 (straight sessions of a stronger PBOC yuan fix, the longest streak since...
Trump’s Iran Opening Sinks Oil: What Markets Are Pricing In Before He Meets Xi
TODAY'S NUMBERS
$100.65 (Brent crude, -3.1%) · $4,355 (gold, per oz.) · 3.75%-4.00% (Fed funds rate)
Oil is pricing in Iranian de-escalation while gold barely moves —...
Why the Fed’s Hike Won’t Bring Gulf Money Back to Wall Street
TODAY'S NUMBERS:
3.75%–4.00% (Fed's new rate, first hike since 2023) · 100.07 (Dollar Index) · $127.08bn (Korea's 2026 portfolio outflow). The dollar's rebound is being...