US forces are withdrawing from their remaining bases in Iraq, raising concerns that their departure could create a security vacuum, strengthen Iranian-backed Shi’ite militias and give the resurgent Islamic State an opportunity to regroup.
The withdrawal, completed on Wednesday, was agreed in 2024 under President Joe Biden and carried out by Donald Trump’s administration even as Washington wages war against Iran. Tehran and its allies have celebrated the departure as a victory.
The US exit comes 23 years after American-led forces toppled Saddam Hussein, setting off years of upheaval and violence that eventually contributed to the rise of Islamic State.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has urged Americans to vote out Trump’s allies in Congress as US forces leave neighbouring Iraq, where Tehran has steadily expanded its influence through allied armed groups since Saddam’s fall.
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While the departure of US forces is broadly popular among Iraqis, some remain concerned that Iraqi security forces trained and supported by Washington may struggle to protect the country without the coalition’s military presence. About 4,500 American service members died during more than two decades of war in Iraq.
“The lesson from the past two decades is that security vacuums can be extremely dangerous,” said Jassim al-Bahadli, an Iraqi analyst who advises the security forces.
From US Invasion to Islamic State
The US invasion of Iraq in 2003 overthrew Saddam Hussein and was followed by a prolonged occupation, the establishment of a Shi’ite-led government and years of insurgency.
American forces first fought Saddam loyalists and later al-Qaeda-linked militants as sectarian violence plunged the country into civil war. Washington withdrew its troops at the end of 2011.
Less than three years later, US forces returned after Islamic State seized large areas of Iraq and Syria. The group’s rapid expansion and brutal campaign prompted an international military intervention, with American forces helping Iraqi troops defeat the group’s territorial caliphate between 2014 and 2017.
Islamic State had at its peak controlled roughly a third of Iraq and killed thousands of people. Although it no longer controls significant territory, the group maintains a network of sleeper cells in the country.
The war has also come at a heavy cost for the United States. Roughly twice as many Americans died in the Iraq war as in the parallel conflict in Afghanistan, which ended with the US withdrawal in 2021.
During this year’s conflict with Iran, seven of the 18 US service members listed as killed were in Iraq. The most recent was an Army sergeant who died in July while carrying out the controlled detonation of a drone at a base near Erbil.
Iran and Its Allies See a Strategic Gain
Iran, which has long sought to end the US military presence across the Middle East, has portrayed the American withdrawal from Iraq as a victory for its regional network of allied armed groups.
“What is further concerning is not necessarily direct Iranian intervention, but the possibility that Iran’s proxies will feel increasingly empowered in the absence of a Western military presence,” said Baghdad-based political analyst Ahmed Younis.
He said the groups could seek to expand their influence over Iraqi state policy and strengthen their position within key institutions.
Iranian-backed militias already hold significant political and security influence in Iraq, making the US withdrawal potentially consequential for the balance between Baghdad, Tehran and Washington.
The departure also comes as Iraq attempts to consolidate its own security institutions after years of dependence on international military assistance.
Could Islamic State Exploit the Gap?
Iraqi security officials in both the federal government and the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region have raised another concern: that Islamic State could exploit the reduced Western military presence to rebuild its capabilities.
US forces have provided Iraqi security forces with intelligence on Islamic State movements, aerial surveillance and reconnaissance. Iraqi forces have also relied on coalition support during operations against militant networks.
Retired Iraqi Army General Mohammed al-Jubouri, who commanded a brigade during the war against Islamic State, said the key question was whether Iraq’s security institutions had developed an effective plan for operating without the international coalition.
“The most important question now is whether Iraq’s security institutions have prepared a viable Plan B for the post-coalition phase,” he said.
One potential threat is the increasing use of drones by militant groups. Al-Jubouri warned that Islamic State could attempt to acquire armed or improvised explosive drones while Iraq remains limited in its ability to defend against such attacks.
The US departure therefore marks more than the end of another chapter in America’s long military involvement in Iraq. It also raises questions about whether Baghdad can maintain security independently while managing the influence of Iran-backed armed groups and preventing Islamic State from exploiting any weaknesses left by the coalition’s exit.
With information from Reuters.
