US forces are set to leave their last bases in Iraq by Wednesday, ending more than two decades of American military presence in the country and creating a new strategic opening for Iran and its allies.
The withdrawal, agreed in 2024 under then President Joe Biden and carried out by President Donald Trump’s administration even as Washington wages war against Iran, marks another major shift in the Middle East security landscape.
While the departure is being celebrated by Iran backed armed groups as a victory over the United States, Iraqi security officials and analysts warn that the end of the US led coalition presence could create a security vacuum, strengthen Tehran’s influence and give Islamic State an opportunity to rebuild.
The United States invaded Iraq in 2003 to overthrow Saddam Hussein, beginning a war and occupation that cost the lives of about 4,500 American service members over more than two decades.
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Iran’s Allies See a Historic Victory
For Iran and its allied armed groups, the US withdrawal represents a major strategic achievement.
Jasim al Bahadli, an Iraqi security analyst who studies Iran aligned Shi’ite armed groups, said Tehran stood to benefit because the departure removed a military presence that had acted as a counterweight to Iranian influence in Iraq.
He said pro Iranian militia groups were likely to present the withdrawal as a victory while seeking to convert that momentum into greater influence over Iraq’s security and political decision making.
Abu Mojtaba al Yasiri, a commander in the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella group representing Iran backed factions, described the withdrawal as a “historic victory” for Iraqi resistance groups.
The group has long demanded the departure of US forces, portraying the American military presence as an infringement on Iraqi sovereignty.
Iran itself has also welcomed the withdrawal. Amir Hayat Moqaddam, deputy chairman of Iran’s parliamentary National Security Commission, said lasting security would prevail in Iraq once American forces left the country and the wider region.
Iraq Faces a Difficult Security Transition
Although the end of the US military presence is broadly popular among Iraqis, concerns remain over whether Iraqi security forces are prepared to operate without the same level of American support.
Abdulrahman al Zobaie, a Sunni tribal leader from Fallujah, said Iraqis wanted full sovereignty but warned that the withdrawal could create a vacuum.
“We believe Iraq is still not fully ready to take over the security file at this time,” he said.
The concern is particularly significant because Iraq has spent years balancing relationships with both Washington and Tehran. It has been one of the few countries in the region to maintain close political and military ties with both powers, even as their rivalry has repeatedly played out on Iraqi territory.
That balancing act became especially dangerous in 2020, when the United States killed Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani in a drone strike near Baghdad airport. Iran aligned groups subsequently carried out repeated attacks on US bases in Iraq, sometimes triggering American retaliation.
America’s Long War in Iraq Comes Full Circle
The withdrawal closes a chapter that began with the 2003 invasion and continued through multiple phases of conflict.
American forces initially occupied Iraq and helped establish a new Shi’ite led political order before withdrawing in 2011 after years of counterinsurgency.
Their absence lasted less than three years.
The United States returned in 2014 after Islamic State captured large parts of Iraq and Syria, helping Iraqi and Kurdish forces defeat the militant group and dismantle its territorial caliphate by 2017.
The human cost of the original war was enormous. Around twice as many US service members died in the Iraq war as in the parallel conflict in Afghanistan.
Even during the latest war with Iran, Iraq remained a dangerous operating environment for American troops. Seven of the 18 US service members listed as killed in the conflict were in Iraq, with the most recent death involving an Army sergeant who was killed during the controlled detonation of a drone at a base near Erbil in July.
The Islamic State Threat Has Not Disappeared
The end of the coalition presence is also raising concerns about Islamic State.
Although the militant group lost the territory that once made up its self proclaimed caliphate, Iraqi and Kurdish officials say it still maintains sleeper cells capable of carrying out attacks.
At its height, Islamic State controlled roughly a third of Iraq and killed thousands of people.
Kurdish commander Sirwan Barzani said Iraqi and Kurdish forces had noticed increased movement by Islamic State sleeper cells after the planned withdrawal became public.
He warned that the loss of American intelligence, logistical assistance and drone capabilities could give the group an opportunity to regroup.
Iraqi security forces have also said they uncovered a suspected Islamic State cell preparing suicide attacks timed to coincide with the US withdrawal.
The alleged plot has intensified concerns that the group could attempt to exploit the transition and demonstrate that it remains capable of carrying out major attacks.
Colonel Khalid al Bayati, a senior security official in Kirkuk, said Islamic State was seeking to demonstrate that it remained capable of launching deadly attacks despite its territorial defeat.
A New Balance of Power Is Emerging
The US departure leaves Iraq facing a complicated security environment in which the government must manage competing pressures from Iran aligned armed groups, Islamic State remnants and its own security institutions.
For Tehran, the withdrawal removes a major American military presence from a country where Iran has developed deep political, economic and security relationships since the fall of Saddam Hussein.
For Washington, meanwhile, the end of the military mission reduces its direct presence in a country that has repeatedly become a battleground in the wider US Iran confrontation.
But the withdrawal does not necessarily mean the end of American influence in Iraq. Washington retains diplomatic and strategic relationships with Baghdad, while Iraq’s government remains responsible for preventing armed groups from turning the security transition into a wider destabilization.
The immediate question is whether Iraqi forces can fill the space left by the departing coalition without allowing either Iran aligned factions or Islamic State to expand their influence.
After more than two decades of American intervention, Iraq is entering another uncertain phase, this time without the US military presence that has shaped its security environment since 2003.
With information from Reuters.
