Donald Trump’s weakened political position following the Republican Party’s midterm defeat could give China greater leverage in trade negotiations with Washington. However, Beijing is unlikely to view the result as an outright strategic victory, particularly as a future US president could adopt a more confrontational approach towards China.
American voters frustrated by rising living costs and the economic consequences of Trump’s trade policies handed Democrats control of Congress in Tuesday’s elections. The result has weakened Trump’s domestic political position and could make him more cautious about disrupting the fragile trade truce with Beijing.
For China, a politically constrained Trump could provide an opportunity to secure economic stability, strengthen international trade relationships and prepare for a potentially less accommodating US administration. Yet the next two years could also bring new tensions over Taiwan, regional security and Washington’s wider foreign policy.
Beijing Sees an Opportunity in Washington’s Political Weakness
China could enter the next round of trade negotiations believing that Trump has more to lose from renewed economic confrontation than Beijing does. With his domestic political position weakened, the US president may be more interested in preserving the existing trade arrangement and avoiding another disruption to markets and consumer prices.
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Chinese officials and analysts are nevertheless conscious that the current political environment will not last indefinitely. A successor to Trump could take a substantially harder position on Beijing, particularly on trade, technology and Taiwan.
Former Chinese Foreign Ministry official Shen Weizhong argued that even two additional years of stability would benefit Beijing by giving it more time to strengthen its position before another potential confrontation with Washington.
This reflects a longer-term calculation in Chinese strategic thinking. Beijing may welcome a period of reduced pressure, but it is unlikely to assume that Trump’s relatively accommodating personal relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping represents a permanent shift in American policy.
Trade Negotiations Could Give China Greater Bargaining Power
The immediate test will come in the upcoming trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing. Trump is expected to meet Xi on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Shenzhen later this month, followed by another meeting in Miami in December during the G20.
The central issue is the trade truce due to expire in January. The arrangement helped prevent a major economic shock after the two countries escalated tariffs during the previous year.
Beijing could interpret Trump’s midterm setback as evidence that the US president needs an agreement more urgently than China does. This could encourage Chinese negotiators to demand further tariff reductions and other concessions.
However, pushing Washington too hard could undermine the stability Beijing itself wants to preserve. A breakdown in negotiations would risk renewed economic uncertainty and could strengthen political arguments in the United States for a more confrontational China policy.
Trump’s approach has already shifted considerably since his return to office. He initially imposed triple-digit tariffs on Chinese imports, accusing Beijing of exploiting the US economy and contributing to the country’s trade imbalance. His subsequent engagement with Xi, including high-profile meetings in Beijing and Washington, has produced a more conciliatory political atmosphere but few substantial economic breakthroughs.
Taiwan Could Become a Major Source of Tension
Although trade may dominate immediate negotiations, Taiwan represents a more serious long-term challenge for China.
A Democratic-controlled Congress could increase pressure on Trump to release a $14 billion arms package for Taiwan that the president has reportedly withheld as a negotiating instrument in his dealings with Xi. Beijing considers arms sales to the self-governing island a major security concern and has repeatedly demanded that Washington stop supplying it with weapons.
The political changes in Washington could therefore create an uncomfortable situation for Beijing. Trump may want to protect his relationship with Xi, but congressional pressure could limit his ability to maintain restraint on Taiwan.
China also has reasons to be concerned about the possibility of unconventional foreign policy decisions from a president facing domestic political difficulties. Chim Lee, a senior China analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, warned that Trump’s weakened position could increase the likelihood of unexpected foreign policy moves.
The broader direction of US policy towards China may remain unchanged, but decisions involving Taiwan and regional security could introduce additional instability.
Iran War and Regional Instability Add to China’s Concerns
China’s strategic concerns extend beyond its direct relationship with Washington. An escalation of the Iran war into a wider regional conflict could threaten Beijing’s energy security and economic interests.
A sustained increase in global oil prices would place additional pressure on China, one of the world’s major energy consumers. Regional instability could also disrupt trade routes and complicate Beijing’s diplomatic and economic relationships across the Middle East.
At the same time, Trump may seek Chinese assistance in pursuing other foreign policy objectives as his presidency progresses. Potential areas of engagement include efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war and the possibility of arranging another meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
China’s economic and diplomatic relationships with Moscow and Pyongyang could provide Beijing with bargaining leverage. However, any such cooperation would depend on whether Washington is prepared to offer concessions on issues important to Chinese leadership.
A More Divided Washington Could Complicate US-China Relations
The midterm result also changes the political environment in which future US-China negotiations will take place. After years of dealing primarily with the Trump administration, Beijing will face a Congress with greater capacity to scrutinise Chinese investments, raise human rights concerns and challenge the administration’s decisions on Taiwan.
This could limit Trump’s room for manoeuvre even if he remains personally interested in maintaining stable relations with Xi.
The contrast between Trump’s approach and that of his predecessor, Joe Biden, is also relevant. Biden repeatedly criticised China’s human rights record and made statements suggesting that the United States would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack. Some potential Republican successors to Trump, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, are also regarded by analysts as more hawkish towards Beijing.
For China, this means that the current diplomatic opening may be temporary. Beijing has an incentive to use the remaining period of Trump’s presidency to consolidate economic and diplomatic gains while preparing for the possibility of a tougher American approach in the future.
What Happens Next?
China’s immediate priority is likely to be preserving the trade truce while using Washington’s political divisions to strengthen its negotiating position. Beijing may also seek to diversify its economic relationships and reduce its exposure to future American pressure.
Nevertheless, the Republican defeat does not necessarily represent a strategic victory for China. Congressional scrutiny of Chinese investments, human rights issues and military cooperation with Taiwan could become more intense under Democratic control.
The possibility of a more hawkish successor to Trump further complicates Beijing’s calculations. The next two years may offer China a period of relative stability, but they could also become a temporary pause before a more difficult phase in US-China relations.
For Xi, the challenge will be to take advantage of Trump’s remaining time in office without provoking a political reaction that strengthens Washington’s determination to challenge Beijing. The outcome of upcoming trade negotiations and developments surrounding Taiwan will help determine whether the current political opening produces lasting benefits for China.
With information from Reuters.
