Nine European nations – Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, and Great Britain – joined Ukraine on July 13th in Paris to create the Integrated Anti-Ballistic Missile Coalition. The political message was important: Ukraine is now Europe’s partner for developing military capabilities. But enthusiasm over the coalition’s two initial projects needs a reality check.
With America’s war in Iran stretching on interminably and surrounding Gulf States in Iran’s crosshairs, global stockpiles of Patriot interceptors are low. Ukraine has very few PAC-3 interceptors left and is facing incessant attacks as Russia exploits the shortage. At the NATO summit in Ankara, President Trump gave Ukraine authorization to produce them domestically and France has said they can manufacture Aster interceptors for SAMP/T systems, but both will take time.
This is also a sign that Europe (and potentially the U.S.) no longer considers Ukraine simply as a recipient of aid, but as an ally in producing military technology for the whole continent. Last October, European Council President António Costa wrote: “We need to draw on the lessons from the war in Ukraine, including by strengthening cooperation with the Ukrainian defence industry.” Over the past year,Catherine Vautrin, France’s Minister of the Armed Forces, organized “speed datings” between Ukrainian and French defense industrials “to feed the armies with technologies proven on the front.”
The shift has been underway, but the newly formed Anti-Ballistic Coalition sends the message more clearly. The announcement was attended by Europe’s defense industrial powerhouses: Eurosam, Destinus, Diehl Defence, HENSOLDT, Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace, Leonardo, MBDA, Saab, Safran, Thales, Weibel Scientific; as well as European leadership including António Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
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The Projects
Driven by demand and operational urgency, President Zelensky said the coalition would first focus on the Freyja project to make an anti-ballistic air defense system as a complementary option to Patriot/SAMPT/T. Interceptors are based on Ukrainian Fire Point’s Freyja ballistic FP-7 missile, but technological help from European industrials is needed. While it is unclear where funding will come from, Zelensky argued, “Together, we can create such a system. It is important to politically confirm that FREYJA is our joint project, serving the interests of all of Europe.”
Zelensky says a cost-effective system can be ready in 12 months. Fire Point hopes to produce 2,000 FP-7.X per year, costing $700,000 per interceptor, compared to $3.8 million for a Patriot PAC-3, but that cost might go up with further development expenses. Especially because Fire Point is mostly known for its strike drones and strike missiles, but developing interceptors relies on different engineering including integrated complex guidance, radars and command-and-control systems. Journalist Yuri Svitlyk observes, “This places the project in an entirely different category of technical complexity, which helps explain why most countries possessing comparable capabilities have spent decades developing them.” The FP-7.X had a successful first test flight of an unguided missile in June but must now work with European partners to add the radar, communications, the seeker and anti-jamming technology needed to actually intercept missiles. Plus, Denys Shtilerman, Fire Point’s co-founder, said the system will be based on an open architecture which will allow it to be adopted by different countries, but which adds additional technological complexity that Svitlyk argues “could ultimately prove more time-consuming than designing the interceptor itself”. 12 months might be tight.
The day after the coalition’s debut, a second project was tentatively launched: Bliksem EXO led by Dutch start-up Destinus and joined by Thales, Airbus, MBDA Deutschland and Safran. Industrials signed a preliminary ‘good-faith’ letter of intent to begin the project to create an exo-atmospheric interceptor system capable of destroying ballistic missiles (with Russia’s Oreshnik particularly in mind) before they re-enter the atmosphere (hit-to-kill interception). Destinus is prime contractor and responsible for system integration and the exo-atmospheric kill vehicle.
This is the first time the start-up will lead a complex multinational program which might explain the particularly ambitious goals. Company Destinus’ last funding came from €50 million bank financing late 2025 and Bliksem EXO does not yet have funding plans, national or EU-level commitments. The timeline is also aggressive: plans to start engineering work this August with a space test of the kill vehicle in 2027. To compare, Germany currently uses the Israeli American Arrow 3 exo-atmospheric system to fill this need: a program launched in the early 1990s, which entered the development phase in 2007 and only began production in 2017.
The project seems to be promising the moon and stars, with little as of now to justify claims. Russia’s Oreshnik, which Bliksem EXO aims to defend against, travels at very high hypersonic speeds and has a Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicle (MIRV) system with up to thirty-six terminal vehicles, all deployed in exo-atmospheric flight. It is very complex to target so the challenge ahead is ambitious and it is unlikely that a start-up only needs two years to develop technology that took Israel and the U.S. a decade to produce.
The Shield’s Missing Piece
The Anti-Ballistic Coalition said, “We believe that the protection of Europe requires a global solution of integrated missile defence architecture to deter and defeat future missile threats, developed through collective effort, technological openness, and trusted industrial cooperation.” To that end, Freyja appears to be consistent in terms of needs and capabilities, although the timing and cost questions will need to be addressed. In contrast, European leaders are likely to view Bliksem EXO’s promises with caution, particularly those concerning a trial scheduled for 2027: they are beyond the industrial partners’ capabilities, especially those of start-up Destinus.
Above all, it is essential that policymakers understand that Bliksem Exo is not designed to counter the most challenging threats: hypersonic missiles and hypersonic glide vehicles capable of operating in the atmosphere at high speed and with high maneuverability, whereas Russia and China already have such capabilities in service. To address this, since 2019, Europe, through the European Defence Fund (EDF), has funded two projects. HYDEF, led by a Spanish consortium, received €100 million in EDF funding and €10 million from participating countries including Belgium, Germany, Norway, Poland and Spain. HYDIS2, from MBDA France, received €80 million in EDF funding and another €60 million from partner countries: France, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands. The latter announced in July that it has chosen its final concept based on a solid-propellant rocket motor. In coming months, the EDF will select the most advanced program to receive an additional €100 million, gradually moving towards the development phase. Indeed, these two consortia have been working since 2022 at least and both estimate that, given the complexity of the task, a complete system won’t be ready until around 2035.
EU Defence Commissioner Andrius Kubilius has said air defense is “definitely an emergency” and that it would be a mistake if Europe “didn’t start serious projects on European soil to develop our own missiles.” Europe’s well-structured, well-funded efforts to defend against hypersonic threats, meaning HYDEF/HYDIS, are “serious projects” with realistic targets that are recognized as priorities by Member States. But for the moment, the Anti-Ballistic coalition’s most notable announcement is the inclusion of Ukrainian companies as partners, not just recipients. This Coalition aims to produce sovereign European solutions to protect against ballistic threats and while the intention is laudable, no budgets have yet been made public and the timelines, especially for Bliksem EXO, seem unrealistic and misleading.
