On the surface, seeing ships return to the Strait of Hormuz looks encouraging. Oil is moving through the passage again, with American forces helping tankers make the journey. However, these ships still need military protection, and many shipping companies do not consider the route safe. That is a problem for countries relying on fuel deliveries.
The most recent figures show how uncertain the situation has been. Reuters reported on November 3 that exports of crude oil and petroleum products from the Gulf fell from 18.9 million barrels a day in September to 17.1 million in October. This is still much higher than during the worst of the fighting, but the recovery has not continued as many buyers might have hoped. The figures are also preliminary, as some tankers have stopped broadcasting their locations to avoid being targeted.
The number of ships crossing Hormuz tells a different story. The Washington Post reported that at least 30 ships were passing through daily in October, compared with more than 130 before the war. Oil exports have picked up, but that has not brought most commercial shipping back. Many private operators still do not want to take the risk. The same report said that at least 25 ships had been hit in October, with two sinking. For companies deciding whether to send their vessels through, those figures are difficult to ignore.
Iran does not actually need to attack every ship. In October, Reuters reported that Tehran had warned vessels against using routes it had not approved. When a few ships are attacked, others may decide that the journey is not worth it. A US escort can reduce the risk for one crossing, but there is no guarantee the next will be safe. Iran can therefore keep disrupting energy trade without closing the strait completely. The United States is left protecting a route that might need escorts for months.
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There is also the issue of cost. Tankers need insurance, and war-risk cover has become very expensive. In July, S&P Global reported that additional premiums for some vessels had reached 7.5% to 10% of the ship’s value. These are July figures, not current rates, but they help show why reopening a route does not automatically mean trade is back to normal. Shipping companies may charge more to make the journey, and importers will end up paying some of those costs.
The political situation makes it difficult to know how long even this improvement will last. While the US is protecting tankers, Washington has also threatened to attack Iran again. On November 2, Reuters reported that American forces carried out limited strikes on Qeshm Island, close to Hormuz. Qatar is trying to keep negotiations going, but Washington and Tehran remain far apart. They still disagree over sanctions and the American blockade of Iranian oil. A deal is possible, but an importer signing contracts for next month cannot simply assume the fighting will not start again.
Oil is not the only problem. Qatar’s liquefied natural gas, or LNG, has not returned anywhere near as quickly. It requires specialised ships, and the plants that turn natural gas into liquid were themselves attacked. In March, QatarEnergy said that strikes had disrupted 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity. The damaged facilities could take three to five years to repair. Even if ships were able to pass freely tomorrow, some of the gas customers expected would still be unavailable.
Italy’s Edison is one of the companies affected. It has not received its contracted Qatari LNG since April. In late October, Reuters reported that QatarEnergy had extended its suspension of deliveries until the end of the year. Edison has found replacement cargoes and says it can still meet its obligations. That is reassuring for its customers, but it has had to buy gas elsewhere instead of receiving supplies under its existing contract. The disruption therefore continues to affect European companies even when they manage to replace the missing deliveries.
Asia faces greater pressure. According to the International Energy Agency, almost 90% of LNG passing through Hormuz in 2025 went to Asian markets. Japan and South Korea rely heavily on imported energy. Bangladesh, India and Pakistan together received almost two-thirds of their LNG imports through the strait. These countries do not all have the same ability to cope with higher prices. Bangladesh’s state gas company has been looking for replacement cargoes, but its chairman told Reuters that doing so was putting serious pressure on its finances. Wealthier buyers can pay more; poorer countries may have to use less gas or find other ways of generating electricity.
Europe depends less directly on Hormuz. The IEA estimates that around 7% of Europe’s LNG imports in 2025 came through the passage. But European buyers cannot ignore what happens in Asia. When Asian countries lose Qatari gas, they start looking for cargoes from the United States and other suppliers. That pushes them into competition with Europe. Reuters reported on November 2 that American LNG exports to Europe rose sharply in October, while European and Asian gas prices were both around $28 per million British thermal units. More gas may be arriving, but it is far from cheap.
This is particularly difficult for the EU because its ban on Russian LNG under existing long-term contracts takes effect on January 1, 2027. The ban was agreed as part of the effort to end dependence on Russian energy, not because of the Iran war. Still, it means European buyers will be searching for other supplies while the situation in the Gulf remains uncertain. They can purchase more American gas, but what happens if prices remain high and demand rises again in Asia? That question is harder to answer.
American escorts have made a real difference in keeping Hormuz open to some shipping. But it is still too early to call the route safe. Ships are being attacked, most private operators have not returned, and some LNG cannot be exported because production facilities were damaged. European and Asian importers will face these problems differently. Both, however, have to plan for energy deliveries that could be disrupted again by the next military decision or breakdown in negotiations.
