US President Donald Trump’s midterm election setback could encourage him to intensify efforts to revive diplomacy with North Korea, but the prospects of renewed engagement remain uncertain. While Trump may increasingly turn to foreign policy to secure achievements during the final two years of his presidency, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has fewer incentives to return to negotiations.
The Republican defeat has weakened Trump’s domestic political position and handed Democrats control of Congress. Analysts believe this could push the president to pursue diplomatic successes abroad, particularly in Asia, where he sees opportunities to shape his foreign policy legacy.
North Korea could become a central part of that effort. However, any attempt to reach an agreement with Pyongyang would raise difficult questions about nuclear weapons, sanctions and the security interests of US allies South Korea and Japan.
Trump May Turn to North Korea for a Foreign Policy Success
Trump’s interest in restarting dialogue with Kim reflects his previous efforts to establish a personal relationship with the North Korean leader. During his first presidency, the two leaders met three times following a period of escalating rhetoric and fears of military confrontation.
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However, their 2019 summit ended without an agreement after Washington and Pyongyang failed to bridge differences over North Korea’s nuclear programme and sanctions relief.
The political circumstances have since changed. With domestic opposition likely to constrain his administration, Trump may see renewed engagement with Kim as an opportunity to demonstrate diplomatic success before leaving office.
Ban Kil-joo, a professor of international relations at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy, said Trump could devote greater attention to foreign policy as his domestic political room for manoeuvre narrows. The possibility of securing a diplomatic achievement that strengthens the position of a future Republican successor could also encourage renewed efforts.
The White House has rejected the suggestion that Trump’s foreign policy decisions are politically motivated, saying the president acts in the interests of American security and the public.
Kim Jong Un Has Less Reason to Return to Negotiations
Despite Trump’s interest in dialogue, North Korea appears less willing to engage than it was during the 2018–2019 diplomatic period.
Pyongyang has significantly expanded its nuclear and missile capabilities over the past seven years. Its closer relationships with Russia and China have also strengthened its international position, reducing the pressure it might otherwise face to negotiate with Washington.
Kim has previously indicated that he could consider talks if the United States abandoned its demand that North Korea give up its nuclear weapons. Washington, however, has traditionally treated denuclearisation as a central objective of negotiations.
Kim’s influential sister, Kim Yo Jong, has described dialogue as a possible path towards peace but argued that there is currently no need for North Korea to return to negotiations. She has also criticised what Pyongyang considers Washington’s hostile policy towards the country.
The lack of a response from North Korea ahead of a regional summit in China this month has further weakened expectations of an immediate meeting between Trump and Kim.
Trump has continued to speak positively about his relationship with the North Korean leader, describing him as a great guy and saying the two get along well. However, personal diplomacy may not be enough to overcome the strategic differences that ended their previous negotiations.
South Korea and Japan Fear a Deal Could Undermine Regional Security
Any renewed US-North Korea engagement would have implications beyond Washington and Pyongyang. South Korea and Japan remain concerned that Trump could pursue a direct agreement with Kim without adequately consulting regional allies.
The main concern is that Washington might accept limits on North Korea’s nuclear programme rather than insist on complete denuclearisation. Such an arrangement could potentially freeze or restrict certain capabilities while allowing Pyongyang to retain its existing nuclear arsenal.
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University, warned that a summit which effectively set aside denuclearisation could weaken regional deterrence and create policy disagreements between Washington, Seoul and Tokyo.
A senior Japanese official has also expressed concern that Japan and South Korea could be excluded from negotiations if Trump pursued a direct arrangement with Kim, potentially with the tacit support of Beijing and Moscow.
For both allies, the issue is not simply whether diplomatic engagement resumes. It is whether any agreement would strengthen regional stability or leave them facing a more powerful North Korea with fewer constraints on its nuclear capabilities.
North Korea’s Expanding Arsenal Raises the Stakes
The military balance has changed considerably since Trump’s previous meetings with Kim.
North Korea now possesses a more advanced range of weapons and delivery systems, including an expanded missile arsenal, hypersonic glide vehicles, modern warships and submarines, as well as improved drone capabilities.
Although the United States and its allies do not formally recognise North Korea as a legitimate nuclear-weapon state, Pyongyang’s growing arsenal has made the challenge of denuclearisation increasingly complicated.
Kazuhiro Maeshima, a professor at Sophia University in Japan, warned that an American decision to accept North Korea’s nuclear status could fundamentally transform the security environment in Asia.
Such a shift would have consequences for regional deterrence, alliance cooperation and the broader international non-proliferation framework.
If Trump wants to bring Kim back to negotiations, he may therefore need to offer more than limited sanctions relief. Any significant concession, however, could face resistance from regional allies and lawmakers in Washington.
Trump’s Limited Political Time Could Weaken His Negotiating Position
The midterm results could encourage Trump to pursue diplomacy, but they may also reduce his ability to deliver an agreement that meets North Korea’s expectations.
A Democratic-controlled Congress could challenge major policy concessions, particularly those involving sanctions or changes to Washington’s security commitments in East Asia.
Moon Chung-in, a professor at Yonsei University and former presidential adviser on national security, argued that Pyongyang would consider whether Trump has sufficient political authority to secure congressional support for an agreement.
If North Korea concludes that Trump has entered a lame-duck period and cannot guarantee that a future administration will maintain his commitments, Kim may see little value in negotiating.
Stephen Biegun, who led US negotiations with North Korea during Trump’s first term as deputy secretary of state, similarly argued that Pyongyang currently has limited incentives to participate in another summit, particularly given the potential political and strategic costs.
What Happens Next?
Trump’s midterm setback could increase his interest in foreign policy achievements, but renewed engagement with North Korea is unlikely to depend on presidential enthusiasm alone.
The central challenge will be finding an arrangement that Washington can present as a diplomatic success without undermining the security interests of South Korea and Japan or weakening its wider non-proliferation commitments.
For Kim, the calculation is different. North Korea’s expanded military capabilities and stronger relationships with Russia and China have reduced the incentives for immediate negotiations. Pyongyang may prefer to wait for more favourable conditions rather than enter talks with a US president whose domestic political influence has weakened.
A renewed Trump-Kim meeting remains possible, but the diplomatic conditions that produced their earlier summits have changed significantly. Without meaningful compromises from Washington and a clear strategic incentive for Pyongyang, another high-profile meeting may achieve little beyond political symbolism.
With information from Reuters.
