Why China Is Closely Watching Germany’s Military Reforms

Strategic institutions and research departments of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) are closely monitoring the performance of the German Armed Forces (Bundeswehr). Chinese coverage and analysis focus on several key areas, reflecting Beijing’s interest in assessing Western military capabilities and their impact on European and global security. These areas include the rearmament efforts and readiness of the German Armed Forces, also known as the Bundeswehr. Chinese military analysts are particularly interested in Germany’s ambitious modernization plans, which aim to increase the size of the armed forces to 260,000 personnel, as well as the enactment of new military service laws and leadership reforms. China views these steps as a significant strategic shift for NATO in response to global tensions and their impact on the balance of power. Within this framework, PLA military and intelligence publications analyze German tactical performance, combat doctrine, joint exercises, and military operations to assess maneuver tactics and joint capabilities, drawing on historical perspectives to understand the rapid adaptability of armies. China is also closely monitoring the technological advancements in German defense industries, such as fighter jet technology and air and naval defense systems, and their impact on technological modernization across Europe.

In its reports on the challenges facing the German Armed Forces (Bundeswehr), Chinese coverage highlights structural obstacles, such as the recruitment crisis, the reasons for young Germans’ reluctance to serve, and funding and logistical problems, which sometimes hinder the rapid achievement of strategic objectives. Chinese analyses also address ongoing cooperation and joint training between China and Germany (such as joint medical exercises and reciprocal military academic research) as part of Beijing’s efforts to understand the operational doctrine of European armies. To this end, Chinese military analysts are closely observing the Bundeswehr’s recruitment crisis and its restructuring to gain a better understanding of NATO’s operational doctrine.  Beijing uses this data to assess Europe’s capacity to intervene militarily in the event of a conflict over Taiwan or an escalation of the Strait of Hormuz crisis with Iran. The People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) analysis of European militaries focuses on the German Bundeswehr crisis, NATO’s operational doctrine for Germany, and the challenges of recruiting young Germans. Beijing’s observers closely monitor the internal German debate surrounding the reintroduction of conscription and the shortage of young volunteers. According to Chinese intelligence, military, defense, and security analyses, this shortage in Germany and other European countries is seen as a structural weakness in NATO’s ability to muster sufficient forces against China in the event of a future conflict over the Taiwan Strait or an escalation of the Strait of Hormuz crisis. Beijing is aware of the efforts of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Defense Minister Boris Pistorius to expand and enhance the capabilities of the German army, representing a gradual shift in German defense policy toward remilitarization.

Therefore, Beijing is studying the issue of centralizing the German military command to understand how German defense and military reforms integrate with NATO’s military strategy, which relies on Europe building strong conventional armies to reduce the burden on the United States. Military circles in Beijing are also studying and assessing the capabilities of European armies, particularly the German army, to intervene in the Strait of Hormuz crisis and the Iran War, analyzing their capacity for military intervention. Chinese planners are closely monitoring the reluctance of European countries to send warships to the Strait of Hormuz and secure shipping lanes in the Middle East after the Iran War. This confirms for Beijing that European powers face significant logistical, military, and political constraints beyond their immediate borders. Beijing’s military intelligence and think tanks analyze all strategic scenarios regarding Taiwan and dual deterrence. China uses these analyses to bolster its deterrence strategies, as European, and especially German, reluctance in crises like the Middle East demonstrates their inability to provide swift and decisive military support to the United States in the Indo-Pacific. Beijing is also studying a containment strategy, meaning it simulates precise military scenarios—such as intensive exercises around Taiwan—to exhaust adversaries and demonstrate superiority. Its assessments are based on monitoring the fragility of European and German supply chains and the lack of interconnected defense capabilities within NATO. Here, contact with think tanks and intelligence agencies in Beijing analyzes all strategic scenarios regarding Taiwan and the dual deterrence strategy.

These strategic readings confirm that military planners in Beijing are carefully studying the limitations of European and German military projection beyond their borders, exploiting the Strait of Hormuz crisis to assess the extent of Western and German reliance on American deterrence. This points to a logistical and political crisis hindering independent European, and especially German, intervention in Middle Eastern conflicts. These limitations and actions emerged within several key parameters, including German hesitation and constraints. Analyses by Chinese military, research, and intelligence think tanks revealed Berlin’s significant reservations about independently deploying warships to protect navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the Middle East, particularly given the German government’s requirement that any military involvement in Middle Eastern conflicts, such as the deployment of the Fulda minesweeper and the Mosel supply ship, be contingent upon an international mandate and strict political consensus passed through the German parliament (Bundestag). Here, the crisis revealed to Chinese circles the lack of logistical and military capacity among European powers, including France, the United Kingdom, and Germany, to independently manage and secure vital energy corridors, free from American alliances. Thus, Beijing’s geopolitical conclusions, drawn by closely observing these slow responses and diplomatic restraint, served as a living analytical model for assessing the capabilities and actions of the German Bundeswehr within the framework of NATO’s military doctrine, which is led and dominated by Washington. China uses these indicators as an assessment strategy for how political constraints and supply chains might affect any Western and German alliances in the event of a future crisis in the Straits of Malacca or Taiwan.

Accordingly, Chinese security analysis agencies are monitoring these factors to draw lessons on the effectiveness of foreign military interventions, particularly German interventions conducted away from direct bases. They aim to gain a deeper understanding and analysis of German naval plans and movements in this context and to review reports on the military and logistical capabilities of the German army and the combined forces of Europe within the framework of their NATO military alliance in the face of China.