Turkey’s opposition leader, Ozgur Ozel, plans to create a new party to rival President Tayyip Erdogan, which may help Erdogan maintain his power after 23 years in office. In May, a court removed Ozel as chairman of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), weakening it during a significant legal assault since 2024. If Erdogan seeks another presidential term, elections might be moved up from their planned date in 2028.
Presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkey occur every five years, with the next set for May 14, 2028. Both the president and parliament can call for earlier elections. Erdogan, who has held office since 2003 as prime minister and then president, encountered a constitutional limit on terms but could run again if parliament calls an early election during his final term.
For parliament to initiate an early election, a supermajority of 360 out of 600 lawmakers is necessary. Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), together with allies, has 328 seats, needing 32 more votes from other parties, posing a challenge. The CHP, which has 135 seats, is likely to see many members join Ozel’s new party. Other parties include the pro-Kurdish DEM Party with 63 seats, the nationalist IYI Party with 29, and smaller opposition parties with 26 seats. There are also 11 independent MPs.
Erdogan’s AKP and its nationalist ally MHP claim they intend to hold elections on schedule and have dismissed early voting plans. Ozel has called for an early election primarily to address the legal troubles facing his party but believes it should not occur too close to 2028. The court-reappointed CHP leader, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, has yet to reveal his stance on an early election.
Erdogan might face other options for remaining in power, such as a constitutional amendment requiring support from 400 lawmakers, which seems unlikely. A more feasible path would entail a referendum based on a 360-vote backing, but polls reflect mixed public opinions, posing a risk for the ruling party.
With information from Reuters
