The MENA region, a strategic and historical bridge between Europe and Asia, is of significant geopolitical, economic, and social importance. Over the last year, it has regained global attention. The Israel-Gaza conflict has acted as a catalyst in the region, as due to the war, the region has witnessed historical events that could determine its fate. The possibility of Iran’s emergence as a nuclear state is the most emerging geopolitical risk factor.
The region was progressing toward normalcy and striving for an ambitious plan. An IMEC corridor was announced during India’s G20 presidency to stretch through the Arabian Gulf to connect Europe and Asia, with India as the gateway towards Asia. Surprisingly, the corridor involved both Israel and Saudi Arabia, but neither nation has established diplomatic relations with the other.
Following its Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia wanted peace in the region for its prosperity and safe implementation of its project with a mindset to attract investors to gain a secure future. Therefore, according to several reports, Saudi Arabia was preparing an agreement to establish relations with Israel. Meanwhile, Israel welcomed its inclusion in the project, which would secure Israel’s future in the region and help Israel establish a strong foothold in the region. More importantly, Israel was positioned as an alternative to Turkey in connecting Europe to thriving Asian markets.
However, due to the attack on Israel by Hamas on 7th October 2023 and the abduction of hostages by Hamas, Israel prompted a swift response towards Hamas in Gaza. Slowly, the response shifted to Israel’s war in Gaza. Eventually, the war encouraged “the Axis of Resistance” backed by Iran, present in Yemen by Houthis and in Lebanon by Hezbollah, to respond against Israel. The “Axis of Resistance” had also been referred to as “Iran’s Axis of Evil” by Prime Minister Netanyahu (Wallace 2024).[1] Despite the international backlash against Israel due to heavy civilian casualties and the UNSC resolution to reach a ceasefire to end the war in Gaza, Israel continued its operation.
In the past few months, Israel eliminated Hamas’s top leader, Zahi Yaser Abd al-Razeq Oufi, in the West Bank. It shifted its attention toward Houthis based in Yemen and the Lebanon-based group Hezbollah. With its epic “Pager attack” on Hezbollah, Israel dismantled the communications in Hezbollah and eliminated Hezbollah’s leader among several top commanders of the group. With the operations against the “Axis of resistance,” Israel has now turned its focus upon the head of the Axis- Iran. Israel had also eliminated Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi in Syria. Altogether, Israel is currently engaging several parties and possibly increasing its focus on Iran due to the response from Iran to its missile attack on Israel. The region is facing a cycle of violence, with neither Israel nor the Iran-backed groups seeming to reach an end to the war diplomatically.
IRAN POSSESSING THE NUCLEAR WEAPONS: EMERGING GEOPOLITICAL RISK FACTOR:
Amidst the war, there is one biggest fear of Iran emerging as a nuclear state, which would alter the region dynamics. Due to three reasons, there is a strong possibility of Iran being close to declaring itself as a nuclear state. Firstly, Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei delivered a sermon after more than four years, with an AK-47 at his side, stating, “The actions taken by our armed forces were the least punishment for the occupying Zionist regime in the face of the crimes” (NH Digital and Digital 2024). [2]This shows Iran is responding to the fifth-generation warfare against Prime Minister Netanyahu’s psychological and narrative warfare. Moreover, despite Iran’s most extensive attack on Israel, with nearly 200 ballistic missiles launched, Iran’s supreme leader states it as the “least punishment.” this indicates Iran is placing something more extensive, which may be a nuclear strike.
Secondly, Iran and Russia have been closely cooperating over the last year, with Iran being one of the very few nations supporting the Russian effort militarily and diplomatically in the Ukrainian war (Matamis 2024).[3] Therefore, Russia might be helping Iran to acquire nuclear weapons technology and supply defense systems to defend against Israel since it would not be in favor of Russia to lose a friend supporting them in their crucial war against Ukraine. More importantly, Kamal Kharrazi, an adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, stated, “We have no decision to build a nuclear bomb, but should Iran’s existence be threatened, there will be no choice but to change our military doctrine” (Mukul 2024).[4] With the current regional tensions, it is like Israel might attack Iran, threatening the Khomeini regime’s existence. Hence, Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon would have far-reaching consequences.
Lastly, Iran witnessed an earthquake measuring 4.4 on the Richter scale in Semnan Province (Euronews 2024).[5] This sparked speculation that this might be part of the Iran nuclear program since it is hard to believe that the earthquake is a mere coincidence with the perfect timing when tensions are so high between Israel-Iran and also due to the reasons mentioned above for Iran in favor of acquiring nuclear weapons; yet, the CIA discredited that Iran is building nuclear weapons (“Netanyahu and Israel are ‘all in’ on retaliations against Iran” 2024).[6] However, the CIA speculations have low credibility since the CIA was proven wrong in the case of North Korea in 2013, in the case of India, as well as Pakistan. Moreover, experts believe Iran could be just months away from obtaining a nuclear weapon, marking the closest it has ever come to having one (Mukul 2024).[7]
POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS FOR THE REGION:
Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon might affect Israel in two ways. First, it might endanger the existence of Israel since it is an arch-enemy of Iran. But this might ignite a global war since any nation using nuclear weapons against another state would be fighting against the whole world since the use of atomic weapons is against humanity. Moreover, this would mean the end of the Khamenei regime, which he maintained over the years. Therefore, Iran destroying the existence of Israel would not benefit Iran.
The second way could be that Iran’s nuclear weapons affect Israel. Iran would use nuclear weapons as a nuclear deterrence against Israel and keep using the “Axis of resistance” to stop Israel’s expansion or aggression towards Palestine. Furthermore, it is doubtful that Iran would use nuclear weapons. Iran’s supreme leader issued a fatwa against nuclear weapons, declaring it unIslamic many years ago. In addition, according to his website, he expressed his views on nuclear weapons in which out of the 85 quotes, the term “haram” is mentioned just three times, and it is precisely in reference to the “use of nuclear weapons,” rather than their manufacture or accumulation. This shows that Iran’s supreme leader has only said the use of the nuclear weapon is a sin but not its production. Additionally, he has condemned the “use” of weapons of mass destruction as a “great sin” on two occasions (Dagres 2024).[8]
Iran acquiring nuclear weapons will also start a nuclear arms race across the MENA region, especially Saudi Arabia, which would feel compelled to develop nuclear weapons to balance the power in the region. Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Salman had been evident in this matter if Iran did successfully produce a weapon, “we will have to get one” (Borger 2023).[9]This might also affect the recent normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. This would further affect the global energy market. With the nuclear arms race in the region, the region’s strategic lanes would be affected since heavy militarization would be deployed to contain spillover.
Lastly, Iran getting nuclear weapons would further challenge the global world order since the Western countries would fail to contain close friend of Russia from developing a nuclear weapon, and Iran would be able to use nuclear weapons as leverage to lift sanctions imposed against it, to supply energy, which would consolidate positions of Russia and China. More importantly, it allows nations like India to use Iran for its strategic “North-South Corridor” and establish a road to Central Asia, as well as tap into Iran’s energy supply if Iran successfully pressures the U.S. to lift sanctions. However, there is also a strong possibility that the U.S. and Europe would use everything they can to defend the world order, which would mean establishing a nuclear pact with Saudi Arabia, along with normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia and imposing sanctions against Iran, which would be backed by Russia and China. Thus leading to a Cold War-style standoff in the region.
MITIGATING THE RISKS:
There are a few ways to mitigate this risk and stop Iran from making a nuclear weapon. Firstly, there seems to be a cycle of retaliation and counter-retaliation ongoing between Iran and Israel, which does not end without pressure from the outside world. Israel has better technology and intelligence compared to Iran. No nation would like a cornered Iran that would seek to get nuclear weapons to save itself. As a consequence, Iran would seek assistance for nuclear technology from like-minded nations and nations in similar situations who are heavily sanctioned and getting pushed to a corner like Russia and North Korea, which already possess nuclear technology.
Moreover, targeting the oil infrastructure of Iran would harm Iran’s neighboring states, which are the Gulf states, as Iran would target their oil infrastructure. Also, rising economies like India will be damaged in the cycle of war in the region since it relies on energy in the Middle East. Further, Europe might also face the consequences since Europe is seeking an alternative to Russia for energy supply. Therefore, friendly nations between Iran and Israel, like India, and oil-rich nations like Saudi Arabia need to put pressure on Israel and the U.S., not further pressure Iran by attacking its oil infrastructure or military infrastructure. Instead, Israel should be negotiated to carry out operations against the “Axis of Resistance” to defend itself and free the hostages taken by the Hamas. The Iranian Foreign Ministry announced that Iran had no plans to send troops to Lebanon or Gaza. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei emphasized that the axis of resistance would persist even in the absence of Nasrallah. Thus, Iran will not be directly confronted or cornered in this case (Rfe/Rl and Farda 2024).[10]
Moreover, Israel targeting the nuclear sites would not solve their concern as well. Unlike the Iraq and Syria nuclear projects, which were stopped by Israel’s attacks, the Iran project is different. Today, the Iranian program relies on compact centrifuges that can be rapidly produced and positioned in nearly any location (Mecklin 2024).[11]More importantly, if Iran is damaged critically, then it would be complicated to bring Iran to the table as they would realize the current international system is unable to stop Israel. As a consequence, the economic sanctions leverage that the U.S. currently possesses against Iran would not be effective, and Iran would be building the nuclear project with a mindset of nothing to lose since the existence of the Iran Khoemani regime would be endangered.
Since Israel has also banned the United Nations chief, the international body won’t be an acceptable mediator (Starcevic 2024).[12] Hence, a nation like India, having good bilateral relations with both Iran and Israel, should take this opportunity to encourage peace, which will also strengthen India’s stance to attain the UNSC permanent seat if it can initiate talks between both parties since this would preserve peace. On the other side, a mini-multilateral grouping, I2U2, should also hold talks with Israel to hold diplomatic negotiations between Iran and Israel. If Iran is forced to acquire nuclear weapons, the region would be far more risky, which would also affect global energy prices, harming the whole world.
Secondly, to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, the world must take benefit of the leverage and time they have over Iran. Last month, Iran’s foreign minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi, during his visit to New York for the United Nations General Assembly meeting, stated, “Tehran is ready to open talks on Iran’s nuclear programme this week, should others prove willing.” More importantly, he added, “If the other parties are ready, we can restart the negotiations during this trip.” This shows Iran is willing to have diplomatic talks. The world must take this opportunity to action by urging the international bodies to initiate negotiations with Iran and urge the U.S. not to veto any UNSC decision into initiating talks with Iran as it might avert Israel’s attack on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure since diplomatic negotiations will be ongoing between international body and Iran with nuclear weapons as its subject, it would be hard for Israel to justify its decision to target Iran when, at the same time, diplomatic discussions are continuing on the topic of nuclear weapons.
The UNSC and IEA should also take advantage of the situation, wherein Iran’s existence is not entirely threatened. It still has economic aspirations, allowing it to negotiate the implementation of the Middle East Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone. Iran also supported this zone plan in 2023 at the Conference on Disarmament held in Geneva. Yet, it has pointed to Israel as its only obstacle, due to which the region is yet to implement the 1995 resolution and 2010 action plan (“Statement by Iran’s Deputy Permanent Representative on Nuclear Weapon Free Zone – 31 January 2023” 2023).[13] Moreover, the U.S. should restart the JCPOA talks with Iran, giving it some economic leeway in exchange for the assurance that Iran does not aspire to possess nuclear weapons. However, this would need to be more transparent than before, and Iran would be required to do more to show its willingness and preserve peace in the world. This means Iran would need to make it more evident by dismantling its nuclear program and allowing extensive international inspections and monitoring by the IEA.
[1] Wallace, Danielle. 2024. “Netanyahu blasts ‘Iran’s axis of evil’ after Jordan border terror attack kills 3 Israelis.” Fox News. September 9, 2024. https://www.foxnews.com/world/netanyahu-blasts-irans-axis-evil-after-jordan-border-terror-attack-kills-3-israelis.
[2]NH Digital, and Nh Digital. 2024. “Khamenei’s First Public Sermon in Four Years Is Also Message to Israel.” National Herald, October 4, 2024. https://www.nationalheraldindia.com/international/ayatollah-khameneis-first-public-sermon-in-four-years-is-also-message-to-israel.
[3]Matamis, Joaquin. 2024. “Iran and Russia Enter A New Level of Military Cooperation.” Stimson Center, March. https://www.stimson.org/2024/iran-and-russia-enter-a-new-level-of-military-cooperation/.
[4]Mukul, Sushim. 2024. “Is Iran close to a nuclear bomb? An earthquake sparks question.” India Today, October 7, 2024. https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/missile-attack-israel-iran-earthquake-sparks-debate-nuclear-bomb-test-uranium-enrichment-semnan-nuke-facility-natanz-middle-east-2612788-2024-10-07.
[5]Euronews. 2024. “Iran: An earthquake — or a secret underground nuclear test?” Euronews, October 10, 2024. https://www.euronews.com/2024/10/09/social-media-abuzz-with-claims-of-irans-secret-nuclear-test-after-44-magnitude-earthquake.
[6]“Netanyahu and Israel are ‘all in’ on retaliations against Iran.” 2024. https://www.nbcnews.com/investigations/no-evidence-iran-rushing-build-nuclear-weapon-cia-director-says-rcna174004.
[7]Mukul, Sushim.“Is Iran close to a nuclear bomb? An earthquake sparks question.” India Today, October 7, 2024. https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/missile-attack-israel-iran-earthquake-sparks-debate-nuclear-bomb-test-uranium-enrichment-semnan-nuke-facility-natanz-middle-east-2612788-2024-10-07.
[8]Dagres, Holly. 2024. “The nuclear fatwa that wasn’t—how Iran sold the world a false narrative.” Atlantic Council. May 9, 2024. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/iransource/iran-nuclear-weapons-fatwa-khamenei/.
[9]Borger, Julian. 2023. “Crown prince confirms Saudi Arabia will seek nuclear arsenal if Iran develops one.” The Guardian, September 22, 2023. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/21/crown-prince-confirms-saudi-arabia-seek-nuclear-arsenal-iran-develops-one.
[10]Rfe/Rl, and RFE/RL’s Radio Farda. 2024. “Israel Moves Closer To Ground Offensive In Lebanon, Despite Biden Opposition.” RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty, September 30, 2024. https://www.rferl.org/a/israel-lebanon-ground-offensive-hezbollah/33140608.html.
[11]Mecklin, John. 2024. “Carnegie Nuclear Expert James Acton Explains Why It Would Be Counterproductive for Israel to Attack Iran’s Nuclear Program.” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. October 5, 2024. https://thebulletin.org/2024/10/carnegie-nuclear-expert-james-acton-explains-why-it-would-be-counterproductive-for-israel-to-attack-irans-nuclear-program/.
[12]Starcevic, Seb. 2024. “Israel bans UN chief Guterres from entering the country.” POLITICO, October 2, 2024. https://www.politico.eu/article/ban-united-nations-chief-antonio-guterres-enter-israel-katz/.
[13]“Statement by Iran’s Deputy Permanent Representative on Nuclear Weapon Free Zone – 31 January 2023.” 2023. Geneva.mfa.gov.ir. January 31, 2023. https://geneva.mfa.gov.ir/portal/newsview/709290.
