US and South Korean officials increasingly doubt that President Donald Trump will meet North Korean leader Kim Jong Un before the end of the year, as Pyongyang has yet to respond to Washington’s outreach and time is running short for a potential summit in China next month.
Trump has expressed interest in restarting diplomacy with North Korea, but Pyongyang has shown little enthusiasm for talks aimed at curbing its nuclear weapons programme. Five people familiar with the situation said preparations for a meeting had made little progress, despite earlier expectations that the two leaders could meet during regional summits in November.
Trump previously said in August that he hoped to meet Kim later this year. South Korea’s intelligence agency subsequently told lawmakers that there was a 50% chance of a meeting on the sidelines of the November 18-19 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Shenzhen, China.
However, Trump played down those prospects on Monday, saying he was unsure whether either side was seeking a meeting.
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Why Has Diplomacy Stalled?
Washington has received no response from North Korea regarding a potential summit, according to people familiar with the matter. South Korean officials have similarly reported no concrete progress, with little indication that Pyongyang is preparing for a meeting.
North Korean state media has suggested that the country would impose tough conditions on any bilateral summit, potentially including sanctions relief. Although Kim’s sister, Kim Yo Jong, has described the relationship between the two leaders positively, personal rapport has yet to translate into renewed negotiations.
A White House official said Trump remained open to talks without preconditions, adding that no meeting had been scheduled and that the leaders would meet at an appropriate time.
The administration has also indicated that responsibility for advancing negotiations rests with Pyongyang. Last month, a senior US official said Trump was ready to speak with Kim, adding that the next move was up to North Korea.
Ankit Panda, a senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, estimated that the chances of a Trump-Kim meeting during the APEC summit were below 10%.
Panda argued that Washington’s recent decision to scale back military exercises with South Korea had not provided the kind of significant public signal North Korea might expect before agreeing to a summit.
What Role Could China Play?
China remains an important potential intermediary because of its close relationship with Pyongyang. Washington has periodically sought Beijing’s assistance in facilitating dialogue with North Korea, but improved engagement between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping has yet to produce a breakthrough.
The APEC summit could offer an opportunity for diplomatic engagement, but the absence of a response from Pyongyang makes a meeting increasingly uncertain.
US Ambassador to South Korea Michelle Steel said on Wednesday that she did not know when the two leaders might meet. If an arrangement were reached, she suggested, the announcement could come with very little notice.
This possibility leaves room for a last-minute diplomatic development, even as officials lower their expectations.
What Is at Stake for Regional Security?
The uncertainty comes as tensions on the Korean Peninsula remain unresolved. North and South Korea are technically still at war, with the 1950-1953 conflict ending in an armistice rather than a peace treaty.
The United States maintains approximately 28,500 troops in South Korea as part of its commitment to defending the country against potential threats from the North. Pyongyang, meanwhile, continues to develop nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. South Korean officials have cited estimates suggesting that North Korea possesses between 80 and 120 nuclear warheads.
Trump met Kim three times during his first presidential term, in 2018 and 2019. Those encounters were historic diplomatic events, but they failed to produce a lasting agreement on denuclearisation or a concrete resolution to the countries’ longstanding disputes.
A renewed summit could create an opening for dialogue, but the earlier meetings demonstrate the difficulty of converting high-level engagement into substantive results.
For now, the prospects of a Trump-Kim meeting remain uncertain. With no confirmed arrangements and North Korea yet to respond to Washington’s outreach, the possibility of a summit before the end of the year appears increasingly remote. Any breakthrough may depend on whether Pyongyang decides that renewed engagement offers sufficient diplomatic or economic benefits to justify returning to the negotiating table.
With information from Reuters.
