Two Sets of Numbers, One Week
On 22 September, two polls put Brazil’s presidential runoff within the margin of error. Quaest had Senator Flávio Bolsonaro on 42% and President Lula da Silva on 41%. BTG Pactual/Nexus had it 46–45 the other way. Two days later, Xi Jinping sat down with Donald Trump in Washington. The two sides extended their trade truce to 10 January 2027, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China was making “substantial progress” on its promise to buy 25 million tonnes of US soybeans a year through 2028.
Brazilian coverage treated these as separate stories. They are the same story. Every tonne Beijing buys from Iowa to keep Washington happy is a tonne it does not need from Mato Grosso. And Mato Grosso is where the runoff will be won or lost.
From Tariff Victim to Truce Casualty
In July 2025, Trump imposed a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods, citing the prosecution of Jair Bolsonaro, and added a further 25% on other products in July 2026. Washington’s pressure has pushed Brasília toward Beijing, as Modern Diplomacy argued in July, and Lula has built his campaign around “sovereignty.” With his father barred from running, Flávio Bolsonaro has had to campaign in the shadow of the tariffs Trump imposed in his family’s name.
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