China can leverage its membership in the BRICS group and its direct investments in Africa as complementary tools to build growing economic influence that gradually translates into sustainable political, security, and strategic influence. Although Beijing consistently emphasizes that its partnerships are based on common interests and non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries, the geopolitical reality reveals a shrewd use of soft and economic power to shape a strategic environment that serves its ambitions as a major power balancing Western influence. This interconnectedness and gradual transformation can be analyzed through the following axes:
1) Economic and Financial Influence (Phase One): China is the largest financial driver within BRICS (representing approximately 73% of the group’s total economy), and it leverages this dominance through:
– Alternative Financing Platforms: China utilizes the New Development Bank (NDB), a BRICS institution, to provide loans and infrastructure projects to African countries without the stringent political and structural conditions imposed by the IMF or the World Bank.
– Direct Investments and Debt Strategy: By injecting billions of dollars into the energy, ports, and railway sectors (under the umbrella of the Belt and Road Initiative), China has become the continent’s leading trading partner, creating a state of interdependence that strengthens Beijing’s negotiating position.
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2) Transition to Political and Diplomatic Influence: This economic weight automatically translates into effective political influence, manifested in:
– Expanding the BRICS Group as a Geopolitical Bloc: China has strongly spearheaded the expansion of the group to include pivotal African and Arab powers, such as Egypt, Ethiopia, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. This expansion aims to build a voting and political bloc in international forums that supports the Chinese vision of a multipolar world order.
– Mutual Diplomatic Support: This influence guarantees China broad support from African countries within the United Nations on sensitive issues such as Taiwan, human rights, and the South China Sea.
3) Security and Strategic Expansion (Current Phase) is the most sensitive aspect, which has begun to emerge publicly. It manifests itself in:
– Maritime Security and Military Bases: Beijing has begun linking its investments in African ports to security dimensions. The Chinese military base in Djibouti (at the Bab El-Mandeb Strait) is a prime example of this shift.
– Military Maneuvers and Defense Cooperation: China seeks to infuse its BRICS relations with a security dimension, such as leading joint naval exercises off the coast of South Africa to secure maritime trade routes, despite reservations from some members like India and Brazil, who prefer to keep the bloc purely economic.
– Exporting Sensitive Technology: Chinese investments are not limited to raw materials but extend to establishing 5G (fifth-generation) communication networks and government data centers in Africa, granting it far-reaching technological and intelligence influence.
4) Challenges and Limits of Chinese Influence: Despite this success, the Chinese strategy faces fundamental challenges that prevent it from achieving absolute dominance, including:
– Internal BRICS Disagreements: There is no complete consensus within the group on transforming the bloc into a geopolitical or security weapon against the West. India and Brazil reject the militarization or politicization of BRICS agenda and insist on maintaining balanced relations with Washington.
– Local African Concerns: A number of voices within Africa driven by American and Western agendas are warning against falling into the Chinese debt trap and calling for a shift from merely exporting raw materials to establishing real industries to achieve tangible benefits for the African people.
Here, China strategically leverages its BRICS membership and direct investments in Africa to build growing economic influence, which gradually and deliberately translates into political, security, and military influence on the international and African stages. The Chinese strategy relies on integrating economic and diplomatic tools to achieve far-reaching geopolitical gains through the following axes:
1) BRICS as a geopolitical platform and an alternative to the Western system, from which China benefits by:
– Presenting itself as a leader of the Global South: Through BRICS, China presents itself as a leader and defender of the interests of developing countries against Western hegemony.
– Strategic expansion: China’s push to expand membership (to include African countries such as Egypt and Ethiopia, in addition to South Africa) aims to transform BRICS from an economic bloc into a political alliance that adopts the Chinese vision for reshaping the global order.
– Reducing dependence on the dollar: China, through the New Development Bank (NDB) affiliated with the BRICS, seeks to promote transactions in local currencies (such as the yuan), thereby weakening the effectiveness of Western sanctions in the future.
2) Chinese direct investments and the Belt and Road Initiative, through:
– Control of infrastructure: China finances and builds ports, railways, and telecommunications networks in Africa. Sometimes, countries are unable to repay these debts, giving Beijing operational influence or partial ownership of these vital facilities a practice the West calls debt-trap diplomacy.
– Securing vital resources: Chinese investments are concentrated in the energy and rare earth sectors, such as lithium and cobalt in the Congo, which are essential for future technological and military industries.
3) The Gradual Shift to Political and Security Influence
– Political Influence: Chinese economic support guarantees Beijing a strong voting bloc at the United Nations in support of its sensitive issues, such as Taiwan and human rights.
– Military and Security Presence: Economic influence has already translated into tangible military influence. The most prominent example is the People’s Liberation Army base in Djibouti (China’s first overseas military base) established to protect maritime trade routes.
– Arms Exports and Training: China has become one of the largest arms suppliers to African countries and is expanding its programs to train African officers and transfer security surveillance technology to ruling regimes.
In short, we can understand that the economy is the spearhead of China’s strategy, paving the way for building close partnerships that guarantee Beijing a permanent political and security foothold in Africa, under the umbrella of powerful international blocs like BRICS.
