Meloni Set to Break Italy’s Stability Record
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is poised to lead the country’s longest lasting government since World War Two, surpassing the previous record of 1,412 consecutive days held by Silvio Berlusconi. Meloni came to power in October 2022 and has maintained an unusually durable coalition in a country that has experienced 68 governments since 1946.
Her government plans to celebrate the milestone as evidence that Italy has moved beyond its long standing reputation for political instability. The achievement is particularly notable as other major European countries have experienced considerably more frequent leadership changes in recent years.
However, Meloni’s record of stability may prove difficult to maintain after the 2027 parliamentary elections, with opinion polls pointing toward a more fragmented political landscape. Analysts warn that Italy could once again face the coalition instability that has characterised much of its postwar political history.
Fiscal Discipline Strengthens Meloni’s Position
One of Meloni’s strongest achievements has been restoring investor confidence in Italy’s public finances.
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Her government has kept greater control over the deficit and debt while scaling back expensive policies inherited from previous administrations, including the Superbonus home renovation scheme. Employment has also increased significantly, with the government claiming that 1.2 million additional people have entered the labour market and unemployment has fallen below 6%.
Analysts broadly acknowledge the improvement in fiscal credibility. However, they argue that stronger budget management has not been matched by equally ambitious economic reforms.
Italy continues to face structural weaknesses in its public administration, healthcare and education systems. Several of Meloni’s major institutional reforms have also stalled, including proposals aimed at strengthening the powers of the prime minister.
Stability Has Come With Limited Reform
Meloni’s political durability may partly reflect her decision to avoid reforms that could seriously disrupt Italian society.
Her government has focused heavily on issues such as law and order, immigration and public security rather than pursuing sweeping institutional or economic transformation.
This strategy has allowed the coalition to maintain cohesion while avoiding major internal conflicts. But it also raises questions about whether political stability has been achieved partly by avoiding difficult reforms.
The government has advanced a number of security measures and tightened immigration policies, while efforts involving deeper constitutional and institutional change have faced significant obstacles.
Immigration Remains a Political Success
Immigration has been one of Meloni’s most important political priorities.
Her government strengthened police powers and introduced tougher measures against irregular migration. New arrivals fell significantly, from 157,651 in 2023 to 66,316 last year, according to figures cited by Reuters.
The government has presented this reduction as evidence that its tougher approach has worked, while supporters argue that Meloni has influenced the wider European debate over migration.
The issue remains central to her political identity and could become particularly important ahead of the 2027 election.
Meloni’s International Position Has Become More Complicated
Meloni initially cultivated strong relationships with European leaders and developed particularly close ties with Donald Trump.
However, that relationship has deteriorated. Trump criticised Meloni over Italy’s position during the Iran war, weakening the image of Meloni as a potential bridge between Washington and Europe.
The diplomatic setback came shortly after a significant domestic political blow when Italians rejected the government’s flagship judicial reform in a referendum.
The defeat weakened the perception of Meloni’s political invincibility and demonstrated that her coalition is not immune to electoral setbacks.
Electoral Reform Could Reshape the 2027 Vote
With the next parliamentary election approaching, Meloni’s government is seeking to change Italy’s electoral system.
The proposed system would provide a majority bonus to a political bloc receiving more than 42% of the vote. The government argues that the reform would create stronger and more stable governments.
Critics, however, argue that the proposal could disproportionately benefit Meloni’s conservative coalition and increase its chances of remaining in power.
The debate reflects a broader problem in Italian politics: repeated changes to the electoral system have failed to permanently resolve the country’s coalition instability.
Vannacci Threatens the Conservative Alliance
The emergence of a new far right political force led by former general Roberto Vannacci has further complicated Meloni’s electoral calculations.
A BiDiMedia poll published on August 26 placed Meloni’s coalition at 38.5%, below the 42% threshold being considered for the proposed electoral system. Vannacci’s support had risen to around 8%.
His growing popularity could potentially strengthen the conservative camp if he joined an alliance with Meloni. But cooperation could also create problems by alienating moderate voters and raising concerns among European partners.
Alternatively, an inconclusive election could force Meloni to negotiate with Vannacci after the vote to secure a parliamentary majority.
Either scenario could make the next government more difficult to manage.
Italy’s Stability Faces a New Test
Meloni has achieved something rare in modern Italian politics: a government that has survived nearly four years without collapsing.
But the political environment that allowed this stability to emerge is changing. Her coalition partners are not equally strong, a new far right competitor is gaining support, the opposition remains divided and the 2027 election could produce a fragmented parliament.
Italy’s political system has historically made coalition governments vulnerable to internal disagreements. Before Meloni, only four postwar governments had lasted more than 1,000 days, illustrating how exceptional her current tenure is.
Analysis
Meloni’s record is significant, but longevity alone does not necessarily mean Italy has overcome its structural political instability.
Her success has largely come from maintaining coalition discipline, exercising fiscal restraint and avoiding some of the most politically disruptive reforms. This has reassured financial markets and created an image of Italy as a more predictable European partner.
However, the underlying problems that have historically produced instability remain. Italy still faces high public debt, weak economic growth, institutional inefficiencies and a fragmented political system.
The emergence of Vannacci is particularly important because it could fracture the conservative bloc from within. Meloni now faces a difficult strategic choice: cooperate with a growing far right rival to maximise her electoral chances or distance herself from him to preserve support among moderate voters and European partners.
The 2027 election will therefore be more than a test of Meloni’s popularity. It will determine whether the political stability established since 2022 represents a lasting transformation in Italian politics or simply an unusually long pause in Italy’s cycle of coalition instability.
The key question is no longer whether Meloni can break Italy’s stability record. She almost certainly will. The real question is whether she can turn that stability into a durable political model after 2027.
With information from Reuters.
