The ‘Abraham Accord’ is a politico-diplomatic tool to bolster ‘US Order’ in West Asia. It is part of its Indo-Pacific strategy where the United States is focused to shift its attention to deal with the rise of China challenging the US power in the region and the wider world. Putting it in the wider context, Abraham Accord is a diplomatic, political and economic prelude to a security framework of Arab-Israel alliance against Iran in the Gulf and wider West Asia. Shifting Israel to CENTCON from EUCOM initiated by the first Trump presidency in January 2021 and formally completed in September 2021 is the foundation of this security arrangement. It has enabled the naval and military exercises of Israel and the US Gulf allies under CENTCOM platform. Besides, it also involves a geo-economic intent and content to limit the expansion of Chinese partnership diplomacy in the region at the cost of US interests.
For Israel it is a prudent alternative route of engagement with US Arab allies in the region without a final resolution of the ‘Palestine Issue’. It is an astute framework for Israel’s political legitimacy and diplomatic expansion in the region. The economic collaboration with Arab States to the extent that Israel becomes integrated with their economic pursuits of post oil diversification visions. With mutual investment and trade exchanges a dense network of inter-dependency would make the Arab-Israel cooperation too mutually beneficial for their national interests to dispense with in the times to come. Thus, it would help Israel to integrate with its Arab neighbours in a sustained and gradual manner by managing and pushing Palestine to the backseat
The fatigued Arabs countries with the inexorable Palestine Question, was initially viewing it as a pragmatic option towards a managed peace and stability to follow their national interests and economic vision. At the same time Arabs were intended to get an assured pathway to an independent Palestine state by the US and Israel. To begin with there was a strong perception in the diplomatic circle that Abraham Accord has an assured expansion possibility. The Saudi leadership in particular had a positive view of the Accord and they made numerous public statements and remark in this regard. The Saudi Prince, Bandar bin Sultan have expressed his criticism of the Plaestinian leadership in handling the issue while he maintained it clearly that the Palestinian cause as a “just cause”. He opposed the criticism of the Abraham Accord by the Palestinian leadership which has been assumed as a diplomatic shift and orientation of public narrative towards normalization with Israel. The Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman in his press briefing along with President Donald Trump said that, “we want to be part of the Ibraham (Abraham) Accord but we want also to be sure that we secure a clear path of two-state solution” and hinting at President Trump that “we can prepare the right situation as soon as possible to have that.” The joining of Saudi Arabia might have led to the gradual expansion of the Accord into its intended fruition.
But the start of Gaza war and the devastation has shifted global perception and the regional reluctance towards the Accord. The Trump’s ‘Riviera of the Middle East’ and the continuous Gaza suffering has brought the process to a skeptical standstill. The talk of Greater Israel by Israeli leaders and the public justification by American ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee has stunted the Arab response particularly Saudi Arabian leadership who were looking for a right situation for the same. The Iran war and US inability to ensure security to its Gulf allies from the Iranian missiles has drastically undermined the situation. The continuous settlers violence in the West Bank and the Israel’s military operation in Lebanon has virtually put the situation into a reverse direction so far as Abraham Accord is concerned.
Saudi- Pakistan Security Pact in September, 2025, a mutual defense pact that outlines
that an attack on either country will be considered an attack on both. It makes it apparent that it effectively provides Saudi Arabia with Pakistan’s military cover and its nuclear deterrence. This ensure Saudi Arabia an alternative geopolitical leverage to firmly stand with its condition to join the Abraham Accord. Its worth mentioning that Saudi Arabia entails a huge ‘Swing Factor’ geopolitically in the region and Arab-Islamic world. Thus the Saudi-Pakistan Security Pact has significantly depreciated the Saudi geopolitical propensity towards the Abraham Accord.
In the midst of the US-Israel and Iran war and the difficult diplomatic bargaining, the four countries, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkiye have aligned themselves as geopolitical power block to deal with security flux in the region. Several crucial and pivotal meetings at the higher levels have been creating an alternative path for a durable peace in the region. At the moment, the grouping is pushing for a sustained ceasefire in the Iran war and positioning themselves as key players in mitigating the differences between Iran and the United States for a diplomatically negotiated settlement and lasting peace. The process suddenly faced an unprecedented US demand for all these countries joining the Abraham Accord, Qatar and Saudi Arabia immediately as a kind of precondition to have an deal and agreement with Iran. Such a proposal at this stage seems to have put these countries into an awkward position in their domestic arena and existing regional geopolitical landscape. This proposal is highly disruptive in an extremely belligerently-volatile situation in the region. The demand for joining of these countries has actually marred the prospect of the expansion of the Abraham Accord in its intended goals in longer term.
Netanyahu’s recent statement that “We are now in 60% of the territory of Gaza Strip. We were at 50%. We moved to 60%,” and “My directive is to move to- take step by step – first of all 70. let’s start with that.” The message makes it clear that previous plan for Gaza and its reconstruction are in complete contradiction with Israeli strategy and action. The continuation of military expansion in Lebanon and capture of Beaufort castle and the plan to continue to Beirut has put the willing Arab states Abraham Accord averse mode. After the capture of Beaufort Castle by Israel, the France reaction demanded and emergency UNSC meeting on the matter. The United Kingdom and Germany have joined France in condemning the Israeli military action in Lebanon.
The reports of UAE’s attacks on Iran has produced a new strategic divide within the the GCC. The visits of Mossad chief David Barnea and the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu to UAE during the war have created obvious political discomfort among other Gulf states to join the Accord. The UAE has not been successful so far to bring Saudi Arabia and Qatar onboard for a joint strategy against Hormuz Blockade by Iran. The reports of deep military cooperation and coordination between Israel and UAE during the war is not aligned with the strategy of other Gulf countries at the moment, Saudi Arabia in particular. The Saudi strategic position can be understood from the opinion of the former Saudi ambassador to the US, Turki-al Faisal that “if the Israeli plan succeeded in igniting war between us and Iran, the region would be transformed into a state of devastation and destruction, and Israel would succeed in imposing its will on the region, remaining the sole actor in our surrounding”. The strategic vision is clear that Saudi Arabia wants to maintain its strategic autonomy and relevance by maintaining the balance between Israel and Iran. An all-out war is a sure path to destruction of the infrastructure and projects of development and prosperity for the whole region and its Saudi Vision 2030.
China and Russia are perceived to be the lifeline for Iran’s level of defence during the war and strategic support in its offensive capabilities. The Iran-Saudi Arabia- China Trilateral is still holding without showing any signs of cracks despite Iranian attacks on US bases in Saudi Arabia is worth assessment to understand the Abraham Accord’s strategic value for Saudi Arabia and others. In a broader global geopolitical contest, the Abraham Accord with Arab-Israel alliance is at the core of the ‘US Order’ in the region while the Iran-Saudi normalization is at the core of China’s ‘Partnership Diplomacy’ in the region. China is at work to exp[and its presence and influence through its various initiatives- Belt and Road Initiative, Global Development Initiative, Global Security Initiative, Global Civilization Initiative and the Global Governance Initiative, in the region.
In Brief
Geopolitical prudence lies in immediate de-escalation all across the region. There is a need of some bold initiative from Israel by rationalising its periphery alliance in the wake of the present spiraling crisis based on its national interests and logic of regional security. It must build on its gains of Abraham Accord to enhance its position and its influence. United States must act prudently in the face of coordinated intervention of China and Russia. The crisis must be addressed in the framework of regional security, where security of one is inextricably related to others. Threats and violence spreads cyclically travel faster in the region. Instead of a threatening condition to join the Abraham Accord, the United States must work for creating an appropriate and congenial politico-diplomatic atmosphere where the Accord should not only be an attractive strategic option but a necessity for national interests of all and a durable geopolitical calm for a sustainable regional peace.
