Right now, the European Union is in a position not unlike the Gran Teatro Cervantes in Tangier. Built in 1913 as a cultural landmark at the start of the city’s international zone era, the theatre has survived decades of change. Time has left its mark, but the potential for revival is enormous. Europe is similar: tested by crises, but at a moment where careful restoration could unlock its full strength.
The war in Ukraine has hit the continent hard. People are suffering on a massive scale. Energy prices and inflation keep climbing, while geopolitical tensions are exposing cracks in global unity and testing Europe’s strategic autonomy. There is chance for renewal. Just as the Gran Teatro can be restored to blend its historic character with modern use, Europe can rebuild its strategic capacity – if it seizes the moment and embraces reforms driven by the pressures of war.
When the latest round of peace talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. began in Abu Dhabi, Europe seemed more focused on procedure than substance. Russia has made it clear it doesn’t want European involvement and has little interest in treating the continent as a serious partner. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas put it bluntly: without sustained pressure, peace efforts risk entrenching Russian aggression instead of ending it.[1] Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak was even more direct: “Russia will not negotiate seriously unless there is strong external pressure on it. Moscow is afraid only of China and the U.S.”[2]
While Europe debates envoy roles and procedural details, it is quietly testing other levers of influence. The EU is considering sanctions on third-party ports handling Russian oil and exploring early, partial EU membership for Ukraine to accelerate integration and support. These moves show a Europe that is active, committed, and resourceful – but they also highlight a familiar challenge: being busy doesn’t automatically create influence, and good intentions alone cannot produce strategic power.
A Different Kind of Coordination
On February 4, Putin and Xi Jinping held a “low-key” video call that emphasized continuity and control over spectacle.[3] Russia’s war has drawn it closer to non-Western allies, while China faces rising trade and technology tensions with the U.S. and Europe. References to “partnership” and “turbulent global conditions” reflected a shared narrative: the Western-led order is unstable and increasingly out of step with their interests.
What stood out was not a display of power, but careful alignment, shaped as much by risk and constraints as by shared interest. When Putin praises China’s “stabilizing role,” he’s effectively acknowledging Beijing as Russia’s economic anchor and geopolitical shield.
Europe’s Moment to Act
For Europe, the contrast is clear. As Russia deepens its ties with China, the EU remains largely absent from strategic conversations. The ongoing debate over a special envoy shows the danger: without leverage, unity, and clear objectives, simply showing up at the table won’t move Russia from posturing to genuine negotiation.
But this is not a story of decline. Like the Gran Teatro Cervantes, Europe has the capacity to rebuild. The EU is accelerating its reforms, prompted by urgent investment needs in defense and energy, emphasizing the need to develop a united foreign policy.
A practical opportunity to do so will be provided by the upcoming informal European Council meeting held in the form of a retreat on the 12th of February, 2026, in the picturesque Alden Biesen Castle, as President Costa, the President of the European Council, [4] has invited European leaders to concentrate on consolidating the single market, reducing strategic dependencies, and strengthening European competitiveness in this new world.
By stepping back onto its stage, coordinating action around a vision, and investing in lasting governance rather than temporary fixes, the EU can move forward from this war stronger – actually leveraging the challenges of war to create a lasting legacy of influence, just as restoration can give new life to a historic theatre. And one simple truth underlies everything: economic strength is the foundation of military power, not the other way around.
[1] “Kallas tells Euronews Moscow must be forced to make real concessions as Brussels mulls special envoy” available at:
[2] Tarvo Madsen, “Mūhhailo Podoljak: Putin is afraid of only two countries in the world – China and the United States” available at:
https://www.postimees.ee/8412838/intervjuu-mohhailo-podoljak-putin-kardab-ainult-kahte-riiki-maailmas-hiinat-ja-ameerika-uhendriike
[3] “Xi, Putin hail ties in video call as Ukraine war nears anniversary,” available at: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/xi-putin-hail-ties-video-call-ukraine-war-nears-anniversary-2026-02-04/
[4] Informal EU leaders’ retreat, 12 February 2026 – President Costa invited EU leaders to take part in an informal retreat on 12 February to discuss how to strengthen the single market, reduce economic dependencies and boost EU competitiveness in a new geoeconomic context, information available at:
https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/european-council/president
