In recent months, political instability in Pakistan has been coupled with heightened security concerns, particularly regarding the presence of Afghan nationals in the country. The political climate has worsened with the ongoing protests by the opposition party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). This has raised serious concerns regarding the potential threats posed by cross-border terrorism, the exploitation of Afghan refugees for political gain, and the broader implications for national security. In response, Pakistan’s Interior Minister, Mohsin Naqvi, has announced that starting from December 31, 2024, no Afghan nationals will be allowed to stay in Islamabad without a No Objection Certificate (NOC).
This measure is seen as part of a broader strategy to balance humanitarian concerns with the need to ensure national security, especially given the history of Afghan involvement in instability within Pakistan. The presence of Afghan refugees in PTI protests could play a significant role in shaping the government’s stance on Afghan refugees. Currently, Pakistan is hosting around 1.5 million Afghan refugees in cooperation with the U.N. However, the number of illegal refugees suprasses the legally residing refugees. In post U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, some estimates suggest that 800,000 Afghan entered Pakistan, mounting more pressure on the already ailing economy and deteriorating security situation.
Pakistan’s decision to implement stricter regulations stems from multiple factors, with security and political stability being at the forefront. While Pakistan has long been a host country for millions of Afghan refugees, particularly since the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980s, the situation has changed significantly in recent years. As political unrest and violent protests have become more common, the issue of Afghan refugees and their role in Pakistan’s internal security has become more contentious. The human cost of these attacks is staggering. In 2023 alone, more than 1000 Pakistanis including security personnel and civilians were killed in various terrorist attacks. This grim statistic highlights the operational capacity of these terrorist groups and the direct threat they pose to Pakistan’s national security.
One of the key factors influencing the government’s hardening stance on Afghan refugees is the alleged involvement of Afghan nationals in orchestrating or participating in political protests. The PTI, led by former Prime Minister Imran Khan, has been at the center of a series of large-scale demonstrations in recent months. Amidst the chaos of these protests, there have been reports and allegations that Afghan refugees were among the demonstrators. It is important to note that the PTI protests, while primarily focused on political grievances, have occasionally descended into violent clashes with security forces, and some have involved the destruction of public property. In such scenarios, the alleged involvement of Afghan refugees in fomenting unrest becomes a point of concern for the government.
If Afghan nationals are perceived to be participating in destabilizing activities, it could embolden the government to adopt more stringent measures to control their presence in Pakistan. Given the political sensitivity of these protests, with millions of Pakistanis witnessing the unrest on television and social media, the perception that Afghan refugees are contributing to the instability could foster a narrative that strengthens anti-refugee sentiment. This, in turn, would create political pressure on the government to adopt policies that limit Afghan refugees’ presence, particularly in sensitive areas like Islamabad, where political protests have been most concentrated.
The Pakistani government has long maintained that it is important to differentiate between refugees who are fleeing war and persecution and those who may be exploiting the refugee status for more nefarious purposes, such as engaging in militancy or criminal activities. There have been instances in the past where Afghan nationals have been linked to violent incidents within Pakistan, including terrorist attacks. Such events further exacerbate concerns about the potential for Afghan refugees to be exploited by extremist elements. Regardless of the prolonged stay of legal and illegal Afghan refugees in Pakistan, the political partisanship between the opposition and government will exacerbate the Afghan refugee policy in Pakistan.
The announcement of stricter regulations for Afghan refugees, including the requirement for a No Objection Certificate (NOC) to remain in Islamabad, is seen as a direct response to these ongoing threats. This measure ensures that refugees who are genuinely fleeing violence and persecution are not unfairly targeted while also providing the government with better tools to identify and track individuals who may be involved in illegal activities. The NOC requirement could be a step towards creating a more regulated system, where refugees’ activities and movements are monitored, reducing the potential for abuse.
The Pakistani government is walking a fine line between upholding its international obligations to protect refugees and ensuring the security of its citizens. However, the recent political and security developments have made it clear that the presence of Afghan refugees cannot be left unregulated. The challenge moving forward will be for the Pakistani government to balance these security measures with the ongoing need to protect vulnerable populations. It will need to ensure that legitimate refugees are not unjustly penalized, while simultaneously taking steps to prevent exploitation by those with malign intentions.
