Is Pakistan’s Economic Future Tied to the IMF?

Trapped in a cycle of debt, Pakistan's economic crisis reaches a breaking point. The 25th IMF bailout is a desperate gamble for survival, but can it provide a lasting solution to the country's deep-rooted economic problems?

Pakistan’s 25th IMF bailout, the $7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF), marks yet another chapter in the country’s complex relationship with the international lender. This latest agreement, spanning 37 months, provides a much-needed lifeline to a struggling economy grappling with a multitude of challenges. The delay in securing the EFF had intensified fears of a potential economic collapse, making the program’s approval a crucial turning point.

While the EFF offers a temporary reprieve from Pakistan’s economic woes, it is not a panacea. The country’s deep-rooted economic challenges, including structural weaknesses, unsustainable public spending, and a lack of long-term economic planning, will require more than just a short-term financial injection. Despite the government’s optimistic outlook, the reality is that Pakistan’s moribund economy may necessitate further IMF bailouts in the future, underscoring the need for a comprehensive and sustainable economic reform agenda.

The IMF has set forth several key objectives for this bailout package, including rebuilding policy credibility through consistent implementation of sound macroeconomic policies and a broader tax base, advancing reforms to enhance competition, productivity, and competitiveness, reforming state-owned enterprises and improving public service provision and energy sector viability, and building climate resilience.

The IMF has outlined several policy conditions for Pakistan to meet its stated objectives. These conditions include fiscal austerity, maintaining a moderately tight monetary stance, and implementing structural reforms to enhance competitiveness, productivity, and climate resilience. This neoliberal, austerity-based approach is a common feature of IMF programs worldwide, dating back to the 1980s. Critics argue that these policies often lead to economic hardship for ordinary people and may not be effective in achieving long-term economic growth.

The bailout package has failed to deliver sustained macroeconomic stabilization, economic growth, or the necessary fiscal space for essential public spending. The austerity measures imposed by the IMF have limited the government’s ability to invest in education, health, welfare, and climate resilience, particularly in a country with a high population growth rate. This has exacerbated existing inequalities and hindered Pakistan’s progress towards sustainable development.

The IMF’s failure to allocate special drawing rights (SDRs) to support Pakistan during the COVID-19 pandemic and its narrow focus on enhancing the tax base have exacerbated the country’s economic challenges. Moreover, the Fund’s emphasis on increasing the tax base without considering the underlying economic weaknesses of the country has been misguided. Years of underinvestment in social and welfare sectors have left the population ill-equipped to contribute to the tax base. It is unrealistic to expect policymakers to implement tax reforms that burden the high-income classes without addressing the deep-rooted inequalities and economic disparities in the country.

The finance minister’s belief that Pakistan’s serious debt distress will compel the country to implement significant reforms is misguided. Despite the government’s claims of revenue enhancement, the majority of new revenue comes from regressive indirect taxes and direct taxes on salaried individuals and the manufacturing sector. This indicates a continued reliance on traditional sources of revenue rather than exploring more progressive and equitable options.

Moreover, the provincial governments have demonstrated a lack of effort in mobilizing domestic resources, further exacerbating the country’s revenue shortfall. This reliance on federal transfers and external financing has made Pakistan’s economy vulnerable to shocks and limited its ability to implement sustainable policies.

It is imperative for the finance minister to recognize that without a fundamental shift in the country’s revenue generation strategy, the IMF’s bailout package will likely fail to achieve its objectives. A more equitable and sustainable approach would involve diversifying revenue sources, reducing reliance on regressive taxation, and promoting domestic resource mobilization by the provincial governments.

The IMF’s excessive focus on monetary and fiscal austerity policies will hinder Pakistan’s economic recovery by failing to stimulate aggregate supply. The contractionary policies will reduce aggregate demand, leading to a decline in investment, production, and exports. This will put pressure on imports, exacerbate the balance of payments deficit, and further constrain the government’s ability to spend on essential sectors. Instead of promoting economic growth and development, the IMF’s austerity measures will create a vicious cycle of economic stagnation and debt accumulation.

Now the burning question is, whether this will be the last IMF program for Pakistan? Given Pakistan’s history of economic challenges and its reliance on the IMF, it is highly unlikely that this will be the last bailout program. The country’s deep-rooted economic problems, coupled with external factors such as geopolitical instability and global economic trends, make it susceptible to future crises. Unless Pakistan can implement significant and sustainable reforms to address its underlying economic issues, it may find itself needing to turn to the IMF for additional support in the years to come.

The idea that Pakistan can simply replace IMF loans with commercial or friendly-country borrowing is incredibly myopic and does not represent a sustainable exit strategy. While these alternative sources of financing may provide some temporary relief, they often come with higher interest rates and stricter conditions. Additionally, relying too heavily on foreign borrowing can increase a country’s debt burden and make it vulnerable to external shocks. Simply switching lenders is not a viable exit strategy.

Understanding why Pakistan continues to rely on IMF bailouts despite repeated promises of economic reform and implementing corrective measures is crucial for charting a sustainable path forward.Recognizing our shortcomings is the foundational step toward genuine progress.

Some key reforms such as privatizing state-owned enterprises (SOEs), taxing the agriculture, retail, and real estate sectors, and eliminating non-productive subsidies are essential for paving the way to Pakistan’s sound economic future. However, these reforms require strong political will, consensus among stakeholders, and a long-term commitment to implementation.

Privatizing SOEs can improve efficiency, reduce government burdens, and attract foreign investment. Taxing the agriculture, retail, and real estate sectors can broaden the tax base and generate additional revenue. Eliminating non-productive subsidies can reduce government expenditures and allocate resources more effectively.

Pakistan’s economic future hinges on a united front among its political parties. Only with a collective commitment to sustainable economic policies can the country break free from the cycle of external dependency and chart its own course. Political infighting and a lack of consensus can sow seeds of doubt, hinder the implementation of necessary reforms, and destabilize the economy, making it difficult to attract investment and foster economic growth. This can erode investor confidence, deter foreign direct investment, and hinder the country’s ability to access international capital markets.

A clear timeline for graduating from IMF programs is essential for Pakistan’s economic recovery. A realistic timeframe should span six to ten years, allowing for a gradual and sustainable exit. The initial three years can focus on implementing the current IMF program and laying the groundwork for future reforms. The subsequent three years should be dedicated to implementing essential policies and reforms, such as improving governance, diversifying the economy, and enhancing tax revenue. Finally, the last three years can be used to solidify Pakistan’s economic position and prepare for a complete exit from IMF programs.

While Pakistan aims to break free from IMF programs, it may require one additional program to achieve a sustainable exit. Similar to Brazil, which successfully navigated two consecutive three-year IMF programs before achieving economic independence, Pakistan may need a similar approach. This additional program can be used to address any remaining economic challenges, strengthen the country’s resilience, and solidify its exit from IMF dependence. It is crucial to focus on building a strong economic foundation, addressing structural weaknesses, and promoting good governance to ensure that Pakistan can thrive independently.

Rameen Siddiqui
Rameen Siddiqui
A thought leader and youth activist with main focus areas being Sustainable Development, Political Economy, Development Justice and Advocacy. A member of the United Nations Major Group for Children and Youth (MGCY). Also a Youth Member of United Nations Association of Pakistan (UNAP).