Three years after coming to power by military means, the Taliban has stabilized the situation in Afghanistan and managed to achieve diplomatic progress in relations with its neighbors. This is especially noticeable in the case of the Central Asian countries which are trying to build rational and stable economic relations with the Taliban. At the same time, paradoxically, the Taliban’s relations with the Islamic Republic of Pakistan have deteriorated to the level of conflict. An influential sponsor, mentor and the creator of the radical movement of Pashtun students has become the main loser in the reincarnation of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.
Central Asian countries have historically had a wary and ambiguous attitude towards their southern neighbor, Afghanistan. Endless wars, radicalism, Islamic fundamentalism, a haven for international terrorist groups, drug trafficking, and a refuge for Central Asian radicals and oppositionists. All this has darkened the image of Afghanistan among the residents and ruling secular elites of the Central Asian republics. After the collapse of the Soviet Union and the acquisition of independence, the most important thing for the ruling groups of the five countries in the region was to stabilize the situation and strengthen the power of their families and clans. Afghanistan was seen as a threat, a factor of destabilization, and a problematic neighbor that should be fenced off.
Even in this picture, the position of Tajikistan among all the countries of Central Asia was different. Having a complex common border, Dushanbe has always been involved in the internal political processes of its southern neighbor in one way or another. The fact is that about a quarter of the Afghan population consists of Tajiks. Historically, the habitat of this large ethnic group was the north with the city of Mazar-i-Sharif and the capital Kabul. After the withdrawal of Soviet troops and the collapse of the Red Empire, independent Dushanbe sought to support Tajik groups in the Afghan civil war. Tajikistan perceived the first victory of the Taliban in 1996 with extreme hostility. Tajik forces were pushed out of the decision-making process and economic processes.
The second victory of the Taliban also became an unpleasant event for the Tajiks of Afghanistan and Dushanbe. The Tajik authorities immediately took an uncompromising position towards the Taliban and accepted anti-Taliban political forces, including Afghan Tajiks and influential persons from the north of the country. For a long time, official Dushanbe perceived the Taliban as a terrorist organization, a threat that is capable and seeks to destabilize the situation in the country, oppress Tajiks, and export political Islam beyond the Afghan borders.
Tajikistan and Afghanistan are separated by the longest border in Central Asia – 1,344 kilometers. After the collapse of the USSR, it was guarded by Russian border guards, but in 2004, Tajikistan, striving for greater independence, broke the cooperation agreement. As a result, responsibility for border protection fell entirely on the shoulders of the Tajik military. A limited contingent of Russian military advisers remained in the republic for emergency support. In addition, financial and military assistance to Tajikistan in border protection was provided by the EU, China, the USA, India, Iran, the UN, and the CSTO.
In connection with the increasing clashes between Tajik border guards and Islamic State militants, Moscow and Dushanbe have resumed discussions on cooperation in border protection. The situation on the border between Tajikistan and Afghanistan has become more complicated since the Taliban came to power. Although the Taliban claim to be fighting illegal armed groups on their territory, the effectiveness of their actions is questionable. Militants from terrorist organizations such as ISIS-Khorasan, Al-Qaeda, and Ansarullah are still active in Afghanistan. The latter group consists mainly of ethnic Tajiks, including citizens of Tajikistan. This poses a particular threat to Dushanbe since Ansarullah militants have repeatedly attacked the Tajik border.
Tajikistan also has a negative attitude towards the Taliban sponsors, the Islamic Republic of Pakistan. Relations did not develop due to the aggressive policy of the Pakistani military, which for a long time supported and sponsored the Taliban and other radical Islamist groups, including the Haqqani Network. However, in recent years, especially after the reincarnation of the Islamic Emirate, relations between the Taliban and the Pakistani military have worsened. The Taliban began to strive to build a sovereign and independent foreign policy and distance themselves from their Pakistani sponsors. Moreover, the effective foreign policy strategy has led to a certain diplomatic isolation of the Pakistani military in the region and growing hostility towards them from many capitals.
The Taliban assures the world community that they can ensure security for the surrounding countries and the world in general. This has allowed the Kabul government to establish certain contacts with its neighbors – Russia, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Iran, and China. Some of them, for example, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, have excluded the Taliban from the list of banned organizations. Countries bordering Afghanistan are launching joint projects. In particular, Turkmenistan began construction of the first branch of the TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) gas pipeline. Uzbekistan, in addition to building roads, has signed an agreement on processing Afghan oil.
Thus, one can observe cautious transformations in Tajikistan about the Taliban. This was made possible not least by the Taliban’s distancing from the Pakistani military, as well as their attempts to establish a dialogue with their secular neighbors in Central Asia. In addition, some Afghan media reported the day before about the unofficial visit of the head of the State Committee for National Security of Tajikistan, Saimumin Yatimov, to Kabul and his meeting with the heads of the Taliban security services. According to media reports, the visit took place in the second half of August. Yatimov met in Kabul with high-ranking members of the Taliban – the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate, the Prosecutor General, and the Chief of the General Staff of the Army.
Some sources also report that Tajikistan plans to send its ambassador to Afghanistan to improve relations with the Taliban. Afghan media, citing their sources, reported that Yatimov’s visit was carried out on the instructions of Tajik President Emomali Rahmon to strengthen bilateral relations between Tajikistan and the Taliban. In the first six months of 2024, the volume of foreign trade turnover between Tajikistan and Afghanistan, which is under the control of the Taliban, amounted to about $ 46 million. The Tajik authorities also resumed the work of five border markets on the border with Afghanistan.
Today, Dushanbe and Kabul are negotiating at various levels to normalize relations between the two countries, although neither side has officially commented on what is happening.