Donald Trump is considered the Republican candidate with a tough foreign policy towards America’s rivals, something that the Democratic President Obama missed and let China rise. Currently, Mr. Trump is facing problems with age, impeachment scandals, his past before being elected in 2016 and is believed to be behind the Capitol Hill riot in 2021. Mr. Trump is also not liked by many NATO officials because he often threatens to withdraw the US from and stop expanding or dissolve the organization. However, it is undeniable that under the Trump administration, the US has really confronted China fiercely but did not create any crisis, and Mr. Trump is also the first US President to cross the 38th parallel to North Korea. During his time in office, the Trump administration encountered problems with how to get the US out of the Covid-19 pandemic, but compared to getting the US caught up in conflict hotspots during President Biden’s 4 years in office, it has affected national interests. This makes the slogan “Make America Great Again” which appeals to the American character become a common belief of the people, increasing the possibility of Mr. Trump winning the election in 2024. According to forecasters, Donald Trump is expected to win more than 300 electoral votes.
Right in his first term as President, Mr. Trump himself saw the increasing pressure that China was creating for the United States. The increasing influence of China forced the US to adjust its new strategy, shifting to direct competition with this country. The “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” (FOIP) strategy was announced one year after Mr. Trump took office[4]. Strengthening and expanding security alliances in the region based on the “hub and spoke” system in the context that the US could not maintain its absolute power advantage. The Pentagon identified the regional alliance system as one of the important pillars of the US in FOIP. Among them, there are emerging sub-multilateral links established between the US and its allies to protect common interests, typically QUAD, AUKUS, JAPHUS. Among them are connections established after Mr. Trump left the White House, so his views when preparing to return to politics will greatly determine the future of these connections.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has caused the global security and political situation to fluctuate dramatically and pushed the world into a state of “multipolar chaos”. In that context, the trend of strengthening multilateral sub-connections is the choice of many countries. In particular, the connections play an essential role for the US when it has to operate on both strategic fronts in the Euro-Atlantic and Asia-Pacific[11].
The emergence of new power centers with Chinese elements such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the BRICS, the Russia-China-Iran-North Korea axis, etc. increasingly challenges the US and puts it in the question of how to focus its strength on developing the most optimal and powerful connections. Especially for Mr. Trump, who believes that the US has spent too much money on cumbersome alliances. During the election campaign, Mr. Trump outlined a roadmap for a “radical reorientation” of NATO, threatening to withdraw the US from the organization to reduce financial and military resources[12].
Therefore, the orientation of developing sub-multilateral links or small group cooperation mechanisms is the optimal solution to continue developing existing links and promoting the formation of new links in the future. Instead of focusing on a group like NATO, the US can fragment its influence into groups across key regions in Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, and South Asia without being constrained in making decisions like purely multilateral links. They are practical, adaptable, economical, voluntary, and not institutionally bound. The prospect of foreign policy when Mr. Trump “returns” lies in the ability to transform the Japan-US-South Korea alliance triangle from bilateral to multilateral. In addition, both QUAD and AUKUS are actively expanding the agenda (QUAD+) with potential partners such as ASEAN, Taiwan, South Korea, New Zealand… As other countries begin to view sub-multilateral linkages as a clearly targeted initiative, its solidity will be further enhanced.
Unlike the Obama era, when internationalism was the focus of foreign policy, the Trump era gradually retreated to isolationism and pragmatism. “Make America Great Again” was the slogan that ran through the national development strategy under the administration of former President Trump. In his 2017 presidential inauguration speech, Mr. Trump declared: “From now on, there will only be ‘America first, America’s interests come first’.” Meanwhile, the Biden administration has proposed the motto of action “America is back”. The national security strategy under Biden clearly prioritizes the Indo-Pacific region[13]. The system of sub-multilateral links in the Indo-Pacific region has developed more than when Mr. Trump was in office. Although they all aim to support US security, political, and economic activities on the Asia-Pacific front, there is a distinction in priority choices.
Faced with the challenges posed by China, the “hub and spoke” model needs to be adjusted. Develop the “spokes” into small group links in which each member must have the strength to cope well even without the US. While the Australian factor in AUKUS receives nuclear support from the UK and the US, the Philippines does not meet the necessary conditions. This will orient the development of asymmetry between the links if Mr. Trump returns because the role of the Philippines can be replaced by countries with more potential in the region.
In the coming time, developing AUKUS together with QUAD will create a “pincer” position in the Pacific region. According to analysts, while QUAD is highly appreciated for maritime security and non-traditional security challenges, AUKUS is a small multilateral mechanism with the ambition to realize defense measures to enhance substantive capacity for the region[14]. Along with that, AUKUS’s operating procedures are also more flexible than previous cooperation mechanisms, which can facilitate the enhancement of military deterrence capacity in the region. For JAPHUS, the key issues of the alliance are contained in the East Sea region – one of many concerns and not the ultimate tool serving Washington’s global strategy.
