Early Days in the U.S. Presidential Election

This year the Democratic party candidate is Joe Biden, who promised last time, given his age, that he would not seek a second term ... but then everyone realizes the value of an election promise.

Unlike parliamentary systems where the governing party can call an election whenever it chooses as it commands a voting majority, the U.S. system actually mandates when an election is held … every four years on “the Tuesday next after the first Monday in November.”  This year it falls on November 5th.

This year the Democratic party candidate is Joe Biden, who promised last time, given his age, that he would not seek a second term … but then everyone realizes the value of an election promise. 

On the Republican side is ‘heir-presumptive’, Donald Trump, who has yet to announce his vice-presidential running mate.  According to him, he knows but is keeping it secret until the Republican convention in August. 

A master of publicity, Trump’s strategy has merit for the choice-to-be is being debated even in far-away Britain … in the conservative weekly ‘The Spectator’ (May 18, 2024, p. 13). 

Things have changed of late.  The guilty verdict in Trump’s “hush money” trial means some restrictions.  He can no longer vote but, believe it or not, he can still run for president.  In fact there is a precedent:  Socialist Party presidential candidate Eugene Debs won 3.4 percent of the popular vote while he was in prison on sedition charges for opposing publicly the WW1 draft.

Some countries may not admit convicted felons as visitors but in Trump’s case, particularly if he is elected, the appropriate ministry is likely to waive the rules.

Fighting an election against Joe Biden might appear to be like challenging a smoked kipper but he can be roused, and is a seasoned campaigner.  Also a Trump bid is most certainly going to liven-up the election.

Trump hates to lose and is ready for revenge.  It means he is likely to add personal funds to his presidential bid.  On the president’s side, Hunter Biden and his problems with the law will most certainly not be a positive. 

Current polling shows Trump leading Biden, although only by two points.  Yes, Biden is the president and one would have expected him to be comfortably ahead.

Betting odds at (Ladbrokes) also favor Trump.  Already a 7 to 4 favorite versus 2 to 1 for Joe Biden, the future does not at present look rosy for the incumbent.  He of course has enormous power over the course of world events, not to mention the US economy. 

It will be interesting to see how the Democrat and Republican conventions are able to boost their respective candidates.  And of course, a world crisis or two even if self-generated can certainly be useful for ratcheting up popularity. 

Dr. Arshad M. Khan
Dr. Arshad M. Khan
Dr. Arshad M. Khan is a former Professor based in the US. Educated at King's College London, OSU and The University of Chicago, he has a multidisciplinary background that has frequently informed his research. Thus he headed the analysis of an innovation survey of Norway, and his work on SMEs published in major journals has been widely cited. He has for several decades also written for the press: These articles and occasional comments have appeared in print media such as The Dallas Morning News, Dawn (Pakistan), The Fort Worth Star Telegram, The Monitor, The Wall Street Journal and others. On the internet, he has written for Antiwar.com, Asia Times, Common Dreams, Counterpunch, Countercurrents, Dissident Voice, Eurasia Review and Modern Diplomacy among many. His work has been quoted in the U.S. Congress and published in its Congressional Record.