Armenia is holding a parliamentary election on Sunday where the ruling Civil Contract party, led by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, faces various opposition parties that are mostly pro-Russian. Opinion polls indicate that Civil Contract may become the largest party but might not achieve the two-thirds majority needed to amend the constitution.
The election serves as a referendum on Pashinyan’s management of the peace process with Azerbaijan. His government claims to have made progress toward a peace deal after signing an initial agreement with Azerbaijan at the White House in August. Critics of Pashinyan argue that he has given up too much to Azerbaijan, especially given the history of conflict over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which saw renewed hostilities in 2023, resulting in many ethnic Armenians fleeing to Armenia.
As the election approaches, Russia has increased its pressure on Armenia by limiting its exports to Russian markets and threatening to cut off oil and gas supplies. Armenia relies heavily on Russian trade, with a significant portion of its exports going there. Russia has also warned Armenia about its pursuit of EU membership and suggested a referendum for the country’s direction. Civil society in Armenia has expressed concerns over possible Russian disinformation attempts during the election.
On the other hand, Armenia has been moving closer to the West and initiated its EU accession process last year. Part of the proposed peace agreement with Azerbaijan includes creating a transit corridor through Armenia to connect Asia and Europe. Opposition parties, mainly pro-Russian, include the Strong Armenia party, which is led by a billionaire with ties to former unpopular presidents. Negotiations for normalization with Azerbaijan and Turkey are ongoing, but slow progress has been made, with borders closed for decades.
With information from Reuters
