OPEC+ has delayed its review to determine 2027 oil output quotas for its members due to disruptions caused by the US-Israeli war on Iran, which has affected projects aimed at increasing production capacity in the Middle East. This review, planned for completion by late September 2026, is now expected to finish by mid-November 2026.
The OPEC group had emphasized the need to assess each member’s maximum sustainable production capacity (MSC) to establish production baselines for 2027. The US consulting firm DeGolyer and MacNaughton is working on capacity estimates for most OPEC+ members, excluding Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, due to US sanctions. Their report will be submitted to OPEC in mid-November, allowing for consideration at the group-wide meeting later that month.
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has delayed projects that would enhance production capacity, leading to uncertainty about the oil output each country can achieve. Some countries have not yet provided the necessary data for the review. This uncertainty poses challenges for OPEC+, as the assessed production capacities will significantly influence members’ quotas.
Accurate assessments are crucial for quota negotiations; countries with lower estimated production capacity may receive lower quotas, while those with increased capacity might push for higher allocations. The UAE, which recently left OPEC+, and Iraq, which is also seeking a higher quota, are key players in this discussion.
With information from Reuters
