As campaigning begins for Nigeria’s January elections, President Bola Tinubu faces a difficult test of both his economic reforms and his All Progressives Congress party’s more than decade-long record in power.
Tinubu is seeking a second term against major challengers including former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, both of whom have built their campaigns around public frustration with economic hardship and insecurity.
The election will therefore be about more than Tinubu’s personal record. Voters will also be assessing whether the APC, which has governed Nigeria since 2015, has delivered on its promises to improve living standards, strengthen security and revive Africa’s largest economy.
Why Is Tinubu Facing Growing Voter Frustration?
Tinubu entered office promising to address longstanding structural problems in Nigeria’s economy. His government quickly implemented major reforms, most notably ending a costly fuel subsidy and devaluing the naira.
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The measures were welcomed by investors and international lenders because they addressed policies that had distorted Nigeria’s economy for years. The government argues that the reforms have improved public revenues, strengthened economic management and restored investor confidence.
For many Nigerians, however, the immediate consequences have been far more difficult.
The removal of fuel subsidies contributed to a sharp increase in living costs, while currency devaluation raised the price of imported goods. The result has been a severe cost-of-living crisis that has affected households, businesses and consumers across the country.
Reuters cited a voter tracker showing that nearly 80% of Nigerians believe the country is moving in the wrong direction, with economic hardship and insecurity among their biggest concerns.
This creates Tinubu’s central electoral dilemma: can voters be persuaded to accept short-term economic pain in exchange for the promise of long-term stability?
Nigeria’s Economic Reforms Have Come at a High Cost
Few Nigerian presidents have implemented economic reforms as rapidly as Tinubu.
The removal of the fuel subsidy was particularly significant because the programme had consumed enormous amounts of government resources. Under former President Muhammadu Buhari, the subsidy cost the government around $10 billion in 2022 alone.
Tinubu argued that maintaining such policies was no longer sustainable.
His government has pointed to stronger revenues and renewed investor interest as evidence that the reforms are producing results. Yet macroeconomic improvements have not necessarily translated into better living standards.
For ordinary Nigerians, the most immediate economic indicators are the price of food, transportation and other essentials.
At Abuja’s Garki market, butcher Abdullahi Sani told Reuters that he once sold six goats a day but now struggles to sell two.
His experience captures the gap between economic statistics and household realities.
A government can point to improved fiscal indicators and increased investor confidence, but voters are likely to judge economic performance according to whether they can afford food and maintain their livelihoods.
Has the APC’s Decade in Power Hurt Tinubu?
Tinubu faces another political problem: voters may judge him not only on his own presidency but also on the APC’s broader record since 2015.
The party came to power under Buhari promising to defeat Islamist insurgents, tackle corruption and rebuild an economy weakened by low oil prices.
Instead, Nigeria experienced its first recession in 25 years under Buhari, while inflation later climbed above 33%.
The APC’s record has therefore become central to the opposition’s argument that the party has had sufficient time to demonstrate whether its policies can improve Nigeria’s trajectory.
Tinubu can argue that he inherited an economy distorted by years of interventionist policies and that his reforms are attempting to correct those structural problems.
Opposition parties, however, can argue that voters have already endured more than a decade of APC governance and should judge the party according to results rather than promises.
Nigeria’s Debt Burden Is Another Electoral Challenge
Nigeria’s economic difficulties are also reflected in its growing debt.
According to official data cited by Reuters, the country’s debt rose more than twelvefold to 159.35 trillion naira by March 2026 from 12.6 trillion naira at the end of 2015.
Debt servicing has consequently become a major pressure on government finances.
Debt-service costs are forecast at $11.6 billion this year, almost half of projected government revenue and more than twice the 2025 bill.
This creates a difficult environment for any government attempting to increase spending on infrastructure, social programmes and security while simultaneously managing debt obligations.
For voters, however, the technical details of debt management may matter less than their consequences.
If higher government revenues do not produce noticeable improvements in living standards, economic reforms could become politically difficult to defend.
Can Tinubu Convince Voters That the Reforms Are Working?
Tinubu’s central electoral argument will likely be that Nigeria’s economic problems cannot be solved without painful reforms.
His government has defended the removal of the fuel subsidy and currency reforms as necessary measures to restore economic stability and credibility.
The problem is timing.
Economic reforms can take years to produce visible benefits, while their costs are often felt immediately.
A family facing higher food and transportation costs may find it difficult to accept arguments about future economic growth. A small business experiencing falling demand may be less interested in improved investor sentiment than in whether customers can afford its products.
This creates an electoral race between future promises and present economic realities.
Tinubu needs voters to believe that the current hardship represents a transition toward a stronger economy. His opponents need only convince voters that the reforms have made their lives worse.
Security Could Decide the Election
Economic hardship is not Tinubu’s only vulnerability.
Security remains another major concern across Nigeria, with violence continuing despite government claims that military operations have reduced attacks and improved road safety.
The security threats facing the country are also increasingly fragmented.
Banditry remains widespread in the northwest, separatist unrest continues in the southeast and kidnappings for ransom have become pervasive.
Amnesty International estimates that at least 10,217 people have been killed by armed groups since Tinubu took office, while around 15 mass abductions of schoolchildren have been recorded during the same period.
For voters living in affected communities, security is not an abstract political issue.
It directly determines whether farmers can reach their fields, whether children can safely attend school and whether families can travel without fear of kidnapping or violence.
The Election Is Increasingly About Survival
The opposition has sought to frame the election around these everyday concerns.
Rather than focusing exclusively on economic indicators or government reforms, opposition candidates are emphasizing the lived experience of Nigerians dealing with inflation, insecurity and declining purchasing power.
This could prove politically powerful because economic and security concerns reinforce each other.
When farmers cannot safely reach their farms, food production can suffer. When transportation becomes more expensive, food prices can rise further. When businesses face insecurity and declining consumer demand, employment opportunities can weaken.
The result is a cycle in which economic hardship and insecurity become mutually reinforcing political grievances.
For Tinubu, breaking that cycle before voters head to the polls will be crucial.
Can the Opposition Capitalize on Public Dissatisfaction?
Despite widespread frustration, the opposition faces an important obstacle: fragmentation.
Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi have both attracted significant support, but their presence in the same electoral field could divide voters who want an alternative to the APC.
This fragmentation could ultimately benefit Tinubu.
Nigeria’s electoral system rewards candidates who can build broad coalitions across regions and political constituencies. A divided opposition can make it difficult to convert dissatisfaction with the incumbent into a unified electoral challenge.
This is one of Tinubu’s strongest political advantages.
Even if many voters are dissatisfied with the APC, dissatisfaction does not automatically translate into a single opposition candidate capable of defeating the incumbent.
Analysis: Can Tinubu Turn Economic Pain Into Political Survival?
Tinubu’s re-election campaign will ultimately test whether Nigerians are willing to believe that economic hardship today is the price of a stronger economy tomorrow.
His government has implemented reforms that previous administrations had avoided because of their political and social costs. The removal of the fuel subsidy and currency reforms may have addressed longstanding structural problems, but they have also placed enormous pressure on households.
That creates a difficult political calculation.
Tinubu needs the economic benefits of reform to become visible before the political costs become irreversible.
The APC’s broader record makes the challenge even harder. After more than a decade in power, the party can no longer rely solely on promises of change. Voters can reasonably ask why the promised improvements have not yet translated into safer communities, stronger purchasing power and better living standards.
Yet the opposition has its own weakness.
Public dissatisfaction is politically valuable only when it can be converted into an organized electoral alternative. With major opposition figures competing for the same dissatisfied voters, the APC can potentially survive despite widespread frustration.
The election will therefore be shaped by a contradiction.
Tinubu’s biggest weakness is the economic pain created by his reforms, while his biggest political advantage may be an opposition that remains divided.
If voters conclude that the hardship is temporary and that the reforms are beginning to produce results, Tinubu could argue that abandoning his policies would threaten Nigeria’s economic recovery.
If voters instead conclude that reforms have delivered little improvement to their daily lives, the APC’s long tenure could become its greatest liability.
Ultimately, Nigeria’s election is likely to be judged less by economic statistics than by a much simpler question: are Nigerians safer, more prosperous and better able to afford everyday life than they were when the APC first came to power in 2015?
That question could determine whether Tinubu secures another term or whether more than a decade of APC rule becomes the opposition’s strongest argument for change.
With information from Reuters.
