China views the US-Iran agreement (the Memorandum of Understanding for Peace and Ceasefire) as a necessary pragmatic diplomatic step, but considers it fragile. Beijing is approaching this agreement with a complex strategy that balances economic gains with strategic risks. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stated that the current ceasefire and understandings between Washington and Tehran remain fragile, while emphasizing that negotiation and dialogue remain the best option to avoid a full-blown confrontation. However, for China, the US-Iran agreement represents a vital opportunity to ensure stable oil supplies and the safe reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. As the world’s largest energy importer, China relies heavily on oil imports from the region, particularly given its strategic concerns about the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and its impact on global supply chains, especially concerning China’s Belt and Road Initiative investments in the region. Therefore, Beijing has been keen to play a mediating and balancing role in this conflict between Iran and the United States. It has engaged in discreet diplomacy behind the scenes, through partners like Pakistan to bring Iran to the negotiating table, while simultaneously seeking to expand strategic cooperation through ongoing consultations with the Gulf states, such as Saudi Arabia, are committed to ensuring regional stability.
However, Beijing fears that Washington will exploit this agreement to consolidate its unilateral hegemony in the Middle East and manage the post-war phase, potentially threatening its interests and growing influence in the Gulf. Beijing is concerned that any US-Iranian agreement could translate into a strong resurgence of American and Western influence in energy security and maritime navigation arrangements, potentially undermining the 25-year Iran-China agreement and reducing its guaranteed share of Iranian oil (which has reached historically high levels). Furthermore, China is increasingly worried that Washington’s political and military management of the post-war phase will marginalize China’s role and its peace initiatives in the Middle East, especially given the US administration’s success in imposing its conditions within a settlement that ends a large-scale escalation. Despite this, Beijing’s strategic position became clear through the (Five-Point Initiative) between Washington and Tehran, mediated by Pakistan. China sought to contain this preemptive stance through political coordination. Close ties with Islamabad (the mediator). With Beijing and Islamabad launching a joint five-point initiative earlier, they are pushing for a diplomatic solution that guarantees the continuation of Chinese interests and makes China a guarantor in any settlement.
Current diplomatic developments indicate that China has succeeded in protecting its strategic economic and oil interests and establishing its diplomatic presence in the post-war settlement between the United States and Iran. However, Beijing seeks to prevent its initiatives, such as its peace plan, from being marginalized and is working to prioritize its interests within the new regional framework by pushing for adherence to Chinese initiatives. Beijing is promoting its four-point peace initiative, emphasizing its role as a sponsor of diplomatic solutions, while maintaining active lines of communication with the leadership in Tehran and the foreign ministers of Arab states. Beijing is currently prioritizing its partnership with the Gulf states, as its post-war strategy focuses primarily on preventing the Gulf states (especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE) from fully aligning with Washington, while reaffirming its long-term economic commitment to the region. China cautiously welcomed the settlement with Tehran, especially after the Chinese Foreign Ministry expressed its welcome for the agreement (memorandum of understanding) signed between the United States and Iran, stressing the need to end unilateral sanctions on Iran, and emphasizing the importance of continuing dialogue and regional stability.
For this reason, Chinese intelligence, military, political, and strategic circles fear that any comprehensive US-Iranian agreement could lead to Beijing losing its strategic leverage and undermining its massive investments within the (25-year Iran-China trade agreement), all to the benefit of American hegemony. These Chinese intelligence concerns are multifaceted, including (China’s strategic and political anxieties about losing influence over Iran and the Middle East). Beijing fears that Washington will exploit any settlement with Iran to establish a new regional order in the Middle East, realigning alliances in favor of American and Western influence, thus hindering China’s ambition to lead the global order. Therefore, China is employing a number of (geopolitical pressure tactics), recognizing that Iran plays a vital role in countering American pressure, and that any rapprochement could deprive China of a key strategic bargaining chip in its conflict with Washington, such as the (Taiwan issue). In addition to (China’s military and intelligence concerns) regarding the US-Iranian agreement on de-escalating proxy warfare, specifically, China’s reliance on Iranian tactics that drain US forces, such as (Iranian drone attacks) against US military forces and bases in the region and the Gulf. Beijing has been providing Tehran with technical and intelligence support to avoid direct confrontation. The agreement could eliminate this advantage for China, as it also raises concerns about the emergence of a new level of security transparency in the relationship between Iran and the United States following the agreement. Chinese intelligence agencies fear that the US opening to Tehran could allow the US to monitor and dismantle Chinese military supply networks to Iran, thereby (disrupting the flow of dual-use civilian-military materials that China relies on to support its close allies, such as Iran). With the growing intensity of (economic and energy concerns), and fears regarding the impact on China’s energy security, despite China’s need for stable oil prices (which the new US-Iran agreement brokered by Pakistan might provide), it fears that Washington will control key maritime trade routes, specifically securing navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, thus placing Chinese energy supplies at Washington’s mercy. Therefore, China seeks to control Iran’s energy and transportation sectors, believing that any shift in the Iranian regime towards the West and the United States could jeopardize its contractual investments in Iran and the region.
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Based on these developments and the preceding analyses, we conclude that, in light of the ongoing US-Iranian negotiations under international auspices, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi publicly insists that any ceasefire remains fragile, calling for a comprehensive agreement between Iran and the United States that is acceptable to the countries of the region.
