Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s governing coalition is facing fresh political uncertainty as support for coalition partner Matteo Salvini and his far right League party continues to decline ahead of the next general election.
Once the dominant force on Italy’s political right, the League has seen its popularity fall sharply in recent years, raising concerns about the coalition’s ability to retain power in the election expected in 2027.
What Happened?
The League is currently polling at around 6 percent, down dramatically from the 34 percent it secured in the 2019 European Parliament elections.
Its decline has accelerated in recent months following the creation of Futuro Nazionale, a breakaway party formed by a former Salvini ally that has attracted support from right wing voters.
Polling suggests the League’s losses are weighing on Meloni’s broader governing coalition, even as her own Brothers of Italy party continues to maintain strong public support.
Why Salvini Is Losing Support
Political analysts say several factors have contributed to Salvini’s declining popularity.
After transforming the League into a national far right movement, Salvini spent years in government, reducing the party’s anti establishment appeal. His tenure as transport minister has also been overshadowed by persistent rail disruptions and delays to major infrastructure projects, including the proposed bridge linking Sicily with mainland Italy.
At the same time, Italy’s political agenda has shifted. While immigration once dominated public debate, voters are now more focused on inflation, energy prices, and the economic effects of the Iran conflict.
Internal Divisions Grow
The League is facing increasing internal tensions as party members debate its future direction.
Some members continue to support Salvini’s national populist agenda, while others want the party to return to its traditional focus on regional autonomy and the interests of northern Italy.
Italian media has also speculated that Salvini could step aside before the next election, with regional leaders Luca Zaia and Massimiliano Fedriga frequently mentioned as potential successors.
Meloni’s Dominance
Despite the League’s struggles, Meloni remains Italy’s most popular political leader.
Analysts say her personal popularity has overshadowed coalition partners, making it difficult for the League to gain recognition for its role in government.
However, recent polling indicates that the combined support of Meloni’s coalition now trails the center left opposition, suggesting that weakness among coalition partners could become a significant electoral challenge.
Why It Matters
The League’s decline has implications beyond one political party.
As one of the founding members of Italy’s governing coalition, its weakening position could reduce the coalition’s overall electoral strength and complicate Meloni’s efforts to secure a second term.
The outcome may also influence the future direction of Italy’s right wing politics and reshape leadership within one of Europe’s most influential conservative alliances.
Future Outlook
The League is expected to spend the coming months attempting to rebuild support ahead of regional and local elections that could serve as an important test before the 2027 general election.
Party leaders may seek to redefine their political priorities by emphasizing regional autonomy, economic issues, and cost of living concerns rather than immigration alone. Continued speculation over Salvini’s leadership is also likely to persist if polling does not improve, increasing pressure for organizational reforms or a change in leadership before the national vote.
Implications
The League’s weakening position highlights how governing parties can struggle to maintain support after transitioning from opposition movements to long term incumbents. A continued decline could alter the balance of power within Italy’s right wing coalition, making Meloni increasingly dependent on her own party while reducing the coalition’s overall electoral competitiveness. It may also encourage opposition parties to target coalition divisions as the next election approaches.
Salvini’s political decline represents more than the fading popularity of an individual leader. It reflects the broader challenge facing many populist movements across Europe after entering government. Anti establishment rhetoric often loses effectiveness once parties become responsible for governing, particularly when economic concerns replace issues such as migration as voters’ primary priorities.
For Meloni, the situation presents a strategic dilemma. While Brothers of Italy continues to dominate the coalition, parliamentary elections are won by alliances rather than individual parties. Even if Meloni maintains high approval ratings, sustained losses by the League could reduce the coalition’s ability to secure a parliamentary majority, particularly in closely contested constituencies.
The emergence of Futuro Nazionale further complicates the picture by fragmenting the right wing vote rather than attracting support from the center left. This suggests the coalition’s challenge is not simply retaining existing voters but preventing competition within its own political space. Such fragmentation could weaken the coalition’s negotiating power and campaign effectiveness ahead of 2027.
Another notable shift is the changing political agenda. Salvini built his popularity around immigration and national identity, but economic pressures including inflation, rising fuel costs, and slowing growth have become more immediate concerns for many Italian voters. Unless the League successfully adapts its message to these priorities, its traditional electoral strategy may continue to lose effectiveness.
Ultimately, the League’s trajectory could become one of the defining variables in Italy’s next election. If Salvini stabilizes the party or a new leader successfully rebuilds support, Meloni’s coalition could remain competitive. If the decline continues, the center left may gain its strongest opportunity in years to challenge the governing alliance despite Meloni’s personal popularity.
With information from Reuters.
